Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

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Dr. Daniel Fine: Oil – before and after the November election (USA TODAY Farmington Daily Times)


The article can be found here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/06/24/fine-oil-before-and-after-november-election/699460002/  The Trump Administration is moving towards less royalty rates on Federal land leases, less Bureau of Land Management discretion on Environmental Protection Act obstruction on the Application for Petroleum Drilling process, less coal and nuclear power generation decline, and less oil supply confidence in OPEC-Russia world price management.

This is the thrust of the signature world energy domination policy of Secretary Ryan Zinke for the last 16 months. It accounts for the action of OPEC-Russia 10 days ago. Saudi Arabia led OPEC to increase oil production to respond to President Donald Trump, but averted a price shock with gradualism. More output from OPEC offers increased revenue in the very short term.

It now faces an election to decide majority party control of Congress. Should the Democratic Party win at least in the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump will be set back on energy policy and its action realization. He will be forced to use executive power narrowly.

The Democratic Party will prepare for 2020 and the foreclosure of Trump-Zinke on world energy domination through an American petroleum system and public land dispensation.

What will the Democratic Party control of energy in Washington and Santa Fe look like?
Imported oil is consistent with a resumption of climate change energy policy which is less carbon in the economy and more renewables as the alternative.

World investment flows are putting solar and wind ahead of oil and gas for the first time. Electric cars are now one to every six in sales in California and soon in Europe, displacing diesel engines.

The Democratic Party in Washington in 2020 will no doubt align with the European Union in Climate Change with a roll-back of the Trump Administration regulatory reform.

Methane, public land access, a return of BLM dominance, along with tax and infrastructure incentives can be expected. Battery charging technology and its placement capacity expansion on the Interstates will promote the market for electric vehicles. New issues restricting unitization, spacing and density of oil and gas wells should appear on state and Federal land.

In Santa Fe, the current Martinez energy policy and plan (2015) would be rejected in favor of a new Democratic Governor’s choice to start over in 2019.  It should be like Colorado’s energy policy but with strong regulatory hydraulic fracturing intervention and fresh water use conservation emphasis.

The oil and gas industry concentration on the Delaware, Permian, Williston (along with the Bakken Formation), Eagle Ford basins along with the Marcellus in natural gas will double up at heavier entry cost and consolidation.

This process, however, promises San Juan Basin natural gas higher prices. New exploration and production on public land would be minimal and legally challenged.

New off-shore U.S oil would be closed with “national monument” type public law.
The Democratic Party has no conservative business Democratic faction to offset the impact on American oil and gas as an industry.

In New Mexico, county leaders from San Juan, Eddy and Lea will continue to argue on the basis of statewide revenue. The Democratic Party in Santa Fe must demonstrate economic development through diversity while oil and gas is politically isolated.

With Canadian imports and even Russian gas in Boston harbor in very cold and snow-storm winters, the East Coast can return to the way it was before Trump on foreign oil imports – America no longer “First.”

The West Coast without refineries and wired power from natural gas is already there in Democratic Party dominance and declining combustion engines.

Dr. Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.

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Dr. Daniel Fine: Trump’s approach to oil and gas: a new course in the San Juan Basin


 

The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/10/30/fine-trump-new-approach-oil-and-gas-in-san-juan-basin/777153001/

It has been 70 years since a President of the United States has considered domestic oil and gas as a “power” in world affairs. With Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke charting a new course, the Trump Administration is considering a transfer of Federal Land management with natural resources to the Western States.
Coupled with Zinke’s proclamation of American energy world domination, a revolution on how to think about oil and gas in the San Juan Basin is taking place.
The Four Corners BLM management could move across Farmington to the New Mexico state office.  The Bureau of Land Management’s Washington control might move to Denver.
It is more than speeding up Applications for Petroleum Drilling (APD): it is who decides and implements Trump-Zinke. How is San Juan natural gas to advance American oil and gas first in a redesign of domestic resources on a world stage?
Farmington and Carlsbad would control, as New Mexico State offices of oil and gas, new rules with national and global meaning. The San Juan Basin future would have natural gas reserves managed for strategic and economic purposes in the Baltic and Black Seas.  Management would be drawn from New Mexico.
What is the cost for this historic transfer of power from Washington or a non-oil and gas Potomac?
The State of New Mexico must legislate expansion budgets to overcome the limitations of Santa Fe staff in numbers and expertise. Under State Oil and Gas Law, inspectors are needed to inspect wells (62,000).
Inspection of Federal oil and gas wells (transfer from Washington BLM) requires a budgetary alignment with the strategy and vision of Secretary Zinke.
There is a return to the economic development history of America. San Juan Basin natural gas does not depend on localized manufacturing alternatives into natural gas in the Four Corners.  Pipelines take care of markets.  The expansion to ultimate economic recovery is in the new policy of this Administration.
I was the lunch keynote speaker at the Jicarilla Apache Energy Conference in Dulce.  Indian nation natural gas must not be outside American oil and gas first. Investment and production is now a different opportunity. Deals with conventional oil and gas companies were part of the excitement.
Readers of this column in the Energy Magazine have followed a forecast made 11 months ago, in which I have seen warning signs of oversupply of world oil in 2019.
The Initial Public Offering (IPO) shares in Saudi Aramco is doubtful.  China or BP could buy non-controlling blocks of shares as an alternative. If this IPO fails, Saudi Aramco will have little reason to throttle OPEC production downward.
This would open the way for a trend-line similar to 2014. Saudi Arabia is in the first phase of instability.  What happens to Mohammed bin Salmon, the Crown Prince, lies in Qatar, and with the Kurds.
It is important to recognize that the IPO process called for the right of women to obtain driving permits. Underwriters were on notice that such discrimination would distract buyers of Saudi Aramco shares.
Hilcorp’s female staff at Dulce added that they (women in Saudi Arabia) must be 30 years of age and will not be able to drive at night.

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Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico

Dr. Daniel Fine: OPEC oil and ours, who wins? Daily Times 10/29/16


The full article is here->  http://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2016/10/29/fine-opec-oil-and-ours-who-wins/92440428/

This is an excerpt of the article ”

Has the oil price and market share war ended with a Saudi Arabian win?  Or, as some fund managers and speculators argue, has Midland won? We are now in a trading range high of $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

Looking back two years, Wall Street, the oil and gas industry and its trade associations got it all wrong. I was a minority of one in New Mexico with my OPEC analysis of a low of $23 to $28 per barrel which was realized earlier this year.  Once again there is triumphalism and  hubris about winning the war against OPEC.

What is it all about?  If OPEC agrees to freeze production at August output that would put OPEC between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day. In 2013,  OPEC was below 30 million.   If they “freeze” it will be at 2.5 million more than early 2014 while our production had dropped almost 1.5 million.

In other words,  OPEC oil expanded its market share and more significantly has displaced our oil here at home in the American market by nearly one million barrels per barrel.  This is a double win for OPEC and Saudi Arabia:  more of their oil imported into our market and fewer barrels of our oil produced, which is the loss of rigs and jobs and a painful downturn.

The Permian Basin and its Delaware Basin extension into New Mexico has become the new North Slope  Alaska of the 1970s.  It is there that drilling rigs and well completions will be re-activated next year.  The “breakeven” price is lower because of  geology and cost-cutting service contracts.   The downturn contracts, however, will expire and non-Haliburton contractors will ask for more.   Margins will tighten as costs increase.   But North Dakota has leveled off and Eagle Ford is not the Permian.”

TV BROADCAST:OIL IMPORT QUOTAS RALLY


Published on Jun 21, 2016

“FARMINGTON – A group of oil and gas executives and energy policy experts from the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico’s piece of the Permian Basin are pushing a plan to restrict seafaring imports of foreign oil from coming into the U.S. in order to stabilize the oil and gas industry and bring back lost oilfield jobs.

The group’s plan, which would exempt crude oil imported from Mexico and Canada, is an effort to push back against the price wars the group said are being waged by OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia.

Members met at the School of Energy at San Juan College Tuesday to promote the “Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative,” which they say could be implemented in multiple phases within 90 days of the next administration, with the ultimate goal of reducing heavy crude oil imports to about 10 percent of demand.” SEE VIDEO-> OIL IMPORT QUOTA RALLY: TV BROADCAST

Amarillo to host PPROA event ; Leading energy expert Dr. Daniel Fine to deliver breaking news keynote


Amarillo to host PPROA event

Posted: September 4, 2015 – 11:19pm  |  Updated: September 7, 2015 – 10:25pm
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Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

A New Mexico energy policy expert will headline the 86th annual gathering of Panhandle Producers and Royalty Owners Association.

The event will take place Sept. 22 to 24, with sessions at Amarillo Civic Center Complex and events at the Cactus Gun Club and Ross Rogers Municipal Golf Course.

PPROA serves as an advocate for oil and gas producers, mineral royalty owners and industry support companies in the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas.

Dr. Daniel I. Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, a research arm of New Mexico Tech, and Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush will be featured speakers on Sept. 23.

Fine is a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State House and his resume includes stints as a policy advisor on nonconventional oil and gas in the administration of President George W. Bush and as a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Mining and Minerals Resources Institute.

“I’m going to make a special announcement about a policy recommendation that could change the supply and demand for oil dramatically to benefit southwest U.S. producers,” Fine said Friday.

“Let me just say that (much), and I’m reserving that for Amarillo.”

Fine said the information he will release is set against the backdrop of the “open price war against southwest and U.S. shale (oil) production. I’m going to break it down in terms of the history of the price war, the objectives of Saudi Arabia, and the current condition of world oversupply.”

The talk also will cover policy issues involved in the current situation, as well as contain his analysis of the consequences of the proposed nonnuclear proliferation treaty between the United States and Iran and “the re-entry of Iran in the world oil market and its impact on price and U.S. production,” Fine said.

The schedule for Sept. 23 will include a keynote luncheon speech by Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush.

A forum is also planned featuring state Sen. Kel Seliger (R-
Amarillo), state Reps. Four Price (R-Amarillo) and Ken King (R-Canadian), Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton, Texas Alliance of Energy Producers Chief Counsel Gloria Leal, and Texas energy advocate Luke Legate, a PPROA news release said.

The convention will open on Sept. 22, with sessions about the battle for minerals and surface rights in the Texas Supreme Court by Houston lawyer John B. Thomas and a “WOTUS or Bogus” presentation from speaker John Tintera about the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Waters of the United States rules.

Tinterra is former executive director of the Railroad Commission of Texas, a regulatory expert and licensed geologist.

The Sept. 24 activity is a golf tournament at the Ross Rogers course.

PPROA has about 640 members and its conventions regularly draw 200 to 300 participants, Executive Vice President Judy Stark said.

For a convention schedule and registration details, visit www
.pproa.org or call the association office at 806-352-5637.

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