Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘Conservative’

Dr. Daniel Fine: OPEC oil and ours, who wins? Daily Times 10/29/16


The full article is here->  http://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2016/10/29/fine-opec-oil-and-ours-who-wins/92440428/

This is an excerpt of the article ”

Has the oil price and market share war ended with a Saudi Arabian win?  Or, as some fund managers and speculators argue, has Midland won? We are now in a trading range high of $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

Looking back two years, Wall Street, the oil and gas industry and its trade associations got it all wrong. I was a minority of one in New Mexico with my OPEC analysis of a low of $23 to $28 per barrel which was realized earlier this year.  Once again there is triumphalism and  hubris about winning the war against OPEC.

What is it all about?  If OPEC agrees to freeze production at August output that would put OPEC between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day. In 2013,  OPEC was below 30 million.   If they “freeze” it will be at 2.5 million more than early 2014 while our production had dropped almost 1.5 million.

In other words,  OPEC oil expanded its market share and more significantly has displaced our oil here at home in the American market by nearly one million barrels per barrel.  This is a double win for OPEC and Saudi Arabia:  more of their oil imported into our market and fewer barrels of our oil produced, which is the loss of rigs and jobs and a painful downturn.

The Permian Basin and its Delaware Basin extension into New Mexico has become the new North Slope  Alaska of the 1970s.  It is there that drilling rigs and well completions will be re-activated next year.  The “breakeven” price is lower because of  geology and cost-cutting service contracts.   The downturn contracts, however, will expire and non-Haliburton contractors will ask for more.   Margins will tighten as costs increase.   But North Dakota has leveled off and Eagle Ford is not the Permian.”

The John Locke Foundation presents The GeoPolitics of Oil Price-Resource War with oil and gas expert Dr. Daniel Fine RSVP NOW!


The John Locke Foundation presents

The Geopolitics of Oil Price-Resource War

In this presentation, Dr. Fine will discuss Saudi Arabian market share strategy and its threat to U.S. higher-cost shale oil. He will review how it began, the impact on new capital expenditure and drilling, how American technology is fighting back, and the impact on the Western states.

About Dr. Fine
Dr. Daniel Fine is the Associate Director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy and is a Senior Policy Analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources. He has given testimony on strategic natural resources before the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs and Energy and Natural Resources. Dr. Fine is co-editor of Resource War in 3-D: Dependence, Diplomacy and Defense, and has contributed to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, The Washington Times and the Energy Magazine/Daily Times, Farmington, New Mexico. Dr. Fine participated in the Atlantic Council Workshop on Central Asian Energy Policy and the Hudson Institute Russia-United States Relations Project (Oil and Gas). He was a member of the Director’s Advisory Board of the South Carolina Research Authority and a Research Associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Energy and Materials). He was also a contributor to the Harvard University Business School Study on Energy Futures.

Shaftesbury Luncheon talks are free and open to the public. An optional lunch is available for purchase at the event, or participants may brown bag a lunch if they choose.


Purchase Tickets for this Event Online -> http://www.johnlocke.org/events/event.html?id=1035

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