Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

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Dr. Daniel Fine: OPEC oil and ours, who wins? Daily Times 10/29/16


The full article is here->  http://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2016/10/29/fine-opec-oil-and-ours-who-wins/92440428/

This is an excerpt of the article ”

Has the oil price and market share war ended with a Saudi Arabian win?  Or, as some fund managers and speculators argue, has Midland won? We are now in a trading range high of $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

Looking back two years, Wall Street, the oil and gas industry and its trade associations got it all wrong. I was a minority of one in New Mexico with my OPEC analysis of a low of $23 to $28 per barrel which was realized earlier this year.  Once again there is triumphalism and  hubris about winning the war against OPEC.

What is it all about?  If OPEC agrees to freeze production at August output that would put OPEC between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day. In 2013,  OPEC was below 30 million.   If they “freeze” it will be at 2.5 million more than early 2014 while our production had dropped almost 1.5 million.

In other words,  OPEC oil expanded its market share and more significantly has displaced our oil here at home in the American market by nearly one million barrels per barrel.  This is a double win for OPEC and Saudi Arabia:  more of their oil imported into our market and fewer barrels of our oil produced, which is the loss of rigs and jobs and a painful downturn.

The Permian Basin and its Delaware Basin extension into New Mexico has become the new North Slope  Alaska of the 1970s.  It is there that drilling rigs and well completions will be re-activated next year.  The “breakeven” price is lower because of  geology and cost-cutting service contracts.   The downturn contracts, however, will expire and non-Haliburton contractors will ask for more.   Margins will tighten as costs increase.   But North Dakota has leveled off and Eagle Ford is not the Permian.”

TV BROADCAST:OIL IMPORT QUOTAS RALLY


Published on Jun 21, 2016

“FARMINGTON – A group of oil and gas executives and energy policy experts from the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico’s piece of the Permian Basin are pushing a plan to restrict seafaring imports of foreign oil from coming into the U.S. in order to stabilize the oil and gas industry and bring back lost oilfield jobs.

The group’s plan, which would exempt crude oil imported from Mexico and Canada, is an effort to push back against the price wars the group said are being waged by OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia.

Members met at the School of Energy at San Juan College Tuesday to promote the “Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative,” which they say could be implemented in multiple phases within 90 days of the next administration, with the ultimate goal of reducing heavy crude oil imports to about 10 percent of demand.” SEE VIDEO-> OIL IMPORT QUOTA RALLY: TV BROADCAST

Our View: Limiting oil imports would help to protect American producers


By A-J Editorial Board

The full article is here-> http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2016-04-28/our-view-limiting-oil-imports-would-help-protect-american-producers#.Vyf6UPkrLIU

“When the price of oil drops, so does the cost of gasoline. But while people are enjoying paying lower prices at gasoline pumps, plunges in oil prices can cause economic damage in Texas.

And it can put American oil producers out of business when the price of foreign oil imports gets cheaper than the costs of extracting oil from the ground in the U.S.

Oil producers in the Panhandle recently announced the Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative. Their hope is to limit the amount of oil that can be imported from other countries.

We wish them success in getting sympathetic ears to hear their initiative and gathering like-minded people to help further it.

They are right that a limitation should be set on the amount of oil imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Representatives of OPEC’s 18 nations recently met in Doha, Qatar. Among their topics of discussion was whether to freeze oil production levels.

The nations didn’t reach an agreement on the subject.

“OPEC and Russia and various countries met and decided they weren’t going to freeze oil and, in fact, OPEC said they will increase production again. This will drive the price down to $26 (a barrel) again,” said oil producer Tom Cambridge.”

Texas Panhandle And Artesia New Mexico Strike Back With Import Quotas On Foreign Oil: A Reaction To Doha Meeting


The complete press release is here-> http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/texas-panhandle-and-artesia-new-mexico-strike-back-with-import-quotas-on-foreign-oil-a-reaction-to-doha-meeting-300253143.html

AMARILLO, Texas, April 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — The Panhandle of West Texas, a center of American oil since early in the 20th century, answers OPEC and Saudi Arabia with a call for a Presidential Proclamation to establish quotas on imports of foreign oil.

The counter to the Doha meeting is a “line in the sand” against further price and supply wars against oil communities, working families, and producers not only in Texas and the Southwest but across the entire US. The United States should no longer allowSaudi Arabia and the middle east to manipulate our economy by crippling our ability to produce and use our own natural resources. We have been forced to comply with the consequences of decisions made by a country whose intent was to take over a “market share” that was ours and make it theirs.  The results were oil prices plummeting to $26 a barrel.

The “bust” in oil exploration and production has left families, companies, both large and small, with bankruptcy and hundreds of thousands out of work.  Since Thanksgiving of 2014, Saudi Arabia has increased its production to lower prices to shut-in unconventional oil in all areas of the US but specifically in Texas, Oklahoma and Appalachia where “stripper or marginal wells” are more prevalent. It is a price war which has suspended the prospect of American energy self-sufficiency.

The Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative for oil import quotas on foreign oil is nothing new.  It aims to revive the 1959 quota system of President Eisenhower who acted to sustain a healthy oil industry and middle class communities which it employs for reasons of national security.  And it worked for 14 years to keep domestic oil from going out business because of foreign imports.

Import quotas on light tight oil will be 100% — no more imports within the first 60 days of the new American President’s term next year.  Light tight oil or oil from shale is an American technology triumph and the pathway to abundance and security against foreign oil supply cut-off threats. Southwest and Dakota oil will be unbound.  North American oil will avoid the risk of dependence on the world ocean as the transportation for imports.  Oil from shale has so far supported national income savings in the balance of payments of over 500 billion dollars in the last five years.

President Eisenhower’s import quotas limited heavy sour oil to 10-12% of yearly American oil demand — enough to take care ofCanada’s current exports to the United States.

The lower the oil price goes and the longer it stays there because of the Saudis flooding the market, the higher it will go and the longer it will stay there when demand gets greater than supply. This will happen because the US operators and other international companies are not investing in exploration, the oil that we will need in 5 to 10 years is not being discovered and developed today. OPEC cannot supply all the world’s needs. When demand outpaces supply, the price will skyrocket and stay there until the oil operations that are now curtailed can ramp back up. That may take years due to all the layoffs taking place today. All consumers will be hurt by the high prices. That would not happen if we had reasonable prices today to let us keep exploring for and developing new oil reserves for our future needs.

Amarillo to host PPROA event ; Leading energy expert Dr. Daniel Fine to deliver breaking news keynote


Amarillo to host PPROA event

Posted: September 4, 2015 – 11:19pm  |  Updated: September 7, 2015 – 10:25pm
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Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

A New Mexico energy policy expert will headline the 86th annual gathering of Panhandle Producers and Royalty Owners Association.

The event will take place Sept. 22 to 24, with sessions at Amarillo Civic Center Complex and events at the Cactus Gun Club and Ross Rogers Municipal Golf Course.

PPROA serves as an advocate for oil and gas producers, mineral royalty owners and industry support companies in the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas.

Dr. Daniel I. Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, a research arm of New Mexico Tech, and Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush will be featured speakers on Sept. 23.

Fine is a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State House and his resume includes stints as a policy advisor on nonconventional oil and gas in the administration of President George W. Bush and as a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Mining and Minerals Resources Institute.

“I’m going to make a special announcement about a policy recommendation that could change the supply and demand for oil dramatically to benefit southwest U.S. producers,” Fine said Friday.

“Let me just say that (much), and I’m reserving that for Amarillo.”

Fine said the information he will release is set against the backdrop of the “open price war against southwest and U.S. shale (oil) production. I’m going to break it down in terms of the history of the price war, the objectives of Saudi Arabia, and the current condition of world oversupply.”

The talk also will cover policy issues involved in the current situation, as well as contain his analysis of the consequences of the proposed nonnuclear proliferation treaty between the United States and Iran and “the re-entry of Iran in the world oil market and its impact on price and U.S. production,” Fine said.

The schedule for Sept. 23 will include a keynote luncheon speech by Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush.

A forum is also planned featuring state Sen. Kel Seliger (R-
Amarillo), state Reps. Four Price (R-Amarillo) and Ken King (R-Canadian), Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton, Texas Alliance of Energy Producers Chief Counsel Gloria Leal, and Texas energy advocate Luke Legate, a PPROA news release said.

The convention will open on Sept. 22, with sessions about the battle for minerals and surface rights in the Texas Supreme Court by Houston lawyer John B. Thomas and a “WOTUS or Bogus” presentation from speaker John Tintera about the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Waters of the United States rules.

Tinterra is former executive director of the Railroad Commission of Texas, a regulatory expert and licensed geologist.

The Sept. 24 activity is a golf tournament at the Ross Rogers course.

PPROA has about 640 members and its conventions regularly draw 200 to 300 participants, Executive Vice President Judy Stark said.

For a convention schedule and registration details, visit www
.pproa.org or call the association office at 806-352-5637.

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