by Daniel Fine, Energy Magazine – Daily Times USA TODAY
Trump leads mass deregulation effort; comeback seen for San Juan Basin
For more of the article go here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/business/2017/12/24/fine-oil-and-gas-look-what-2018-may-bring/956281001/
“The price of oil in 2018 will be volatile with commodity market traders selling on signals of OPEC-Russia “cheating” or members producing more oil than the extended Algiers Agreement output quotas. This should be expected as U.S. shale producers push past 10 million barrels per day and exceed 1970 as the all-time high for the United States.
At 10.4 million bpd (barrels per day), American oil production will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia. Herein lies the price range: 2015 all over again.
Real OPEC and Russian output will break Algiers (1.8 million barrels off the world market until September). Price range to $62.50 WTI high in the first half of the year and $38.65 at end of the second half or one year from today; 2019 would resemble most of 2015.
There is a second threat to price and production in the Southwest and Dakota. Hedge funds invested in public or listed companies want share buy-backs or dividends. In short, they want to make money now as opposed to operators sinking more cashflow into new production projects. The conflict inside Hess is the first example.
Traditional oil operators are 5-year business planners for returns on investment while the new private equity owners or investors are quarterly or payback pressure points for higher stock market share prices and distribution. OPEC/Russia is the external market threat leading to the lower price range alongside an internal investor/owner threat of less cash flow plow back for future production projects and more for short-term return on investment.
Oil price and production will also reflect Saudi Arabian domestic instability over its simultaneous offensive against Iranian influence in the Middle East and social and economic modernization against traditionalism. The plan is for less dependence on oil exports with technology and manufacturing in the national economy: social change and the status of women in the “revolution.”
The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/06/25/overcapacity-and-price-oil/397050001/
“With the Saudi Arabian-American strategy of removing ISIS and terror roots in Middle East societies and governments, the global oil and gas service companies have new projects to expand oil capacity of Saudi Arabia. This moves Saudi Aramco into overcapacity production range and a Second Downturn in early 2019 as forecast in this column six months ago.
Saudi oil production capacity should increase to 13 million barrels per day with Haliburton and others working on projects to increase reserves. This is prepared to flow into export markets to deprive Occidental of its short- term export of domestic oil which the production cut-back under the 1,800,000 barrels per day OPEC and Russian “deal” provided as a temporary marketing opportunity. The price of de-terrorism in the Middle East is more Saudi Arabian oil and lower world prices. Saudi Arabian demand forecasts are no more than 1 percent per annum growth: its new capacity addition could reach 4 percent per annum in the next five years following the service company projects signed weeks ago.
OPEC production and imports to the U.S are up as this column is prepared for publication. The Commodity Market, which determines the price of world oil, would have a trading range breakout if Iranian gunboats break the isolation of Qatar and engage the U.S. Persian Gulf naval capability. However, such incidents would move traders for hours only.
Natural gas prices should continue to move upward as risk hedging begins to focus on buying gas and selling crude. This is a contract which oil price risk is hedged
A laying of the risk of crude oil price declines with a simultaneous buying of natural gas.
Natural gas storage favors San Juan natural gas producers in the winter months ahead. This stimulates a regional Texas offset with new Eagle Ford dry gas promotion.
Lithium prices have sharply declined mainly because of South Korean mining production and investments. This explains the stock market and Tesla Motors. Tesla may not need its mining investment in Nevada to lower the cost of the battery pack.
This shift to downstream concentration which will re-start statewide competition for expanded facilities to relieve its Fremont, California plant. New Mexico economic development competed with three states to capture the giga-factory in Nevada. A second chance for Santa Fe to win in a second round? “
For the complete article use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/blog/morning-edition/2015/11/nm-energy-outlook-summit-forecasts-hazyfor.html
Panelists at Business First’s second annual New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit yesterday offered but one common ground: Something needs to be done to turn the industry around.
Emceed by ABF publisher Candace Beeke, the event brought together Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech and a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources; Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy for PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM); Bob Gallagher, president of RMG Consulting; and Regina Wheeler, chief executive officer of Positive Energy Solar.
Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy at PNM Resources, speaks during Thursday’s New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit while Regina Wheeler (left), CEO of Positive Energy Solar, looks on.
Over the course of 90 minutes, which included a keynote speech delivered by Fine and a panel discussion, the group addressed questions about the state of the energy industry in New Mexico and the United States, what 2016 might look like for the oil and gas industry and possible solutions to the current industry slump. While driven, in part, by audience-submitted questions, everyone offered a much differing perspective.
In his keynote speech, Fine said he was “coming with realism and bad news” and believed that while no one can forecast the price of oil, “we should prepare for 2003 prices.” He estimated that the price of oil could drop to the $22 to $28 range by June 2016.
Fine also said that the state could see a 10 percent reduction in shale production by that time, as well. He cited increased foreign production of oil over the last couple of years, China’s stabilization at a lower growth rate, decreased commodity demand and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) price war with the U.S. shale industry.
For the complete article use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/blog/2015/11/publishers-noteenergy-industry-critical-to-new.html by Candace Beeke is the president & publisher of Albuquerque Business First
It’s time to talk seriously about the energy industry in New Mexico. And you have some work to do.
Whether your business is directly involved in this industry, it’s very much tied to its outcomes — and right now, there’s much concern about that in the state. After all, some 30 percent of New Mexico’s tax base comes from oil and gas. And you’ve read the headlines we’ve been reporting on how that sector is faring. If you haven’t, let me recap — it’s a fracking mess. The price of oil dropping more than a year ago has resulted in rapid cost cutting from many of the energy majors, including ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL), both of which have major operations and workforce in New Mexico — although smaller now.
Some 30 percent of New Mexico’s tax base comes from oil and gas.
But that’s just one sector of energy. At Albuquerque Business First’s Energy Outlook event Nov. 12, we will hear from the CEO of one of the fastest-growing companies in New Mexico — Positive Energy Solar. And Positive wasn’t the only energy player on ABF’s List of gazelle companies this year. Affordable Solar Group ranked high and made Inc.’s list of fastest-growing companies, as well.
In addition to solar, we will hear from New Mexico energy giant PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM), which has its hands stretched into multiple sectors of energy. We’ve also added oil and gas expert Bob Gallagher, whom many of our readers will remember from his decade of leading the state’s oil and gas association, NMOGA, as well as his time as advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Energy. Gallagher tells me it’s not all doom and gloom in New Mexico oil and gas. In fact, he knows of pockets in the state that are growing rapidly and seeing strong new investment.
But New Mexico doesn’t operate in an energy vacuum. It’s critical for our companies — whether involved directly in energy or on the periphery of it, as most of us are — to understand the global and national challenges facing this industry. Dr. Daniel Fine from the Center of Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech will give us that broad overview and tell us what’s coming in the future.
Join Albuquerque Business First for the 2nd Annual New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit. This Summit will offer business leaders unique access to energy insights that will affect your company in the year to come.
- When: Thursday, November 12, 2015,7:30am-9:30am Add to my calendar
- Where: Sandia Resort & Casino: Ballrooms A&BAlbuquerque NM
- To register use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/event/115971#eventDetails
The second annual New Mexico Energy Outlook will offer business leaders unique access to energy insights that will affect your company in the year to come. Beginning with a keynote by Dr. Daniel Fine, this session will focus on how the evolving landscape of the energy industry and the world’s demand for energy will affect our state and economy. The 30-minute presentation will be followed by a panel discussion featuring executives from the top companies in New Mexico’s energy landscape. Moderated by Albuquerque Business First Publisher Candace Beeke, the panel will be driven by audience questions.
- Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director, Center for Energy Policy
- ConocoPhillips senior executive
- Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy, PNM Resources
- Regina Wheeler, CEO, Positive Energy Solar
Session highlights include:
- The OPEC price war and how it impacts NM
- The price cycle for oil, natural gas and others, and outlook for prices
- Production capacity – where it is rising, where it is falling
- Outlook for employment in energy trades
- Impact of and future for renewable energy in NM
- Opportunities and challenges for the energy sector in NM as a whole
- How the energy sector will shape the broader economy
Dr. Daniel Fine
Center for Energy Policy
New Mexico Tech
Dr. Daniel Fine is the Associate Director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy and is a Senior Policy Analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources.
He is a long time research associate at the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute (MIT). Fine is also a policy adviser on nonconventional oil and gas. He is co-editor of Resource War in 3-D: Dependence, Diplomacy and Defence, has contributed to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal and the Washington Times. He has given testimony on strategic natural resources before the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs and Energy and Natural Resources.
ABOUT NEW MEXICO CENTER FOR ENERGY POLICY
The New Mexico Center for Energy Policy (NMCEP) is the first community-centered response to the challenge of national energy security in the United States. Its location in Lea County reflects the New Mexico Southeast as a historic and contemporary source of energy production and technology. Energy policy-making in Washington and in state capitals is often limited to “witness” appearances from “locals”. Energy policy developed and promoted by an energy production community has been non-existent until now.
Registration & Networking | 7:30AM
Breakfast and Program | 8:00AM – 9:30AM
Sandia Resort & Casino has overnight accommodations at a reduced group rate of $159 until October 11, 2015. RESERVE OVERNIGHT ROOMS HERE.