Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘Niobrara’

Overcapacity and the price of oil Dr. Daniel Fine, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/06/25/overcapacity-and-price-oil/397050001/

“With the Saudi Arabian-American strategy of removing ISIS and terror roots in Middle East societies and governments, the global oil and gas service companies have new projects to expand oil capacity of Saudi Arabia. This moves Saudi Aramco into overcapacity production range and a Second Downturn in early 2019 as forecast in this column six months ago.

Saudi oil production capacity should increase to 13 million barrels per day with Haliburton and others working on projects to increase reserves. This is prepared to flow into export markets to deprive Occidental of its short- term export of domestic oil which the production cut-back under the 1,800,000 barrels per day OPEC and Russian “deal” provided as a temporary marketing opportunity.  The price of de-terrorism in the Middle East is more Saudi Arabian oil and lower world prices.  Saudi Arabian demand forecasts are no more than 1 percent per annum growth:  its new capacity addition could reach 4 percent per annum in the next five years following the service company projects signed weeks ago.

OPEC production and imports to the U.S are up as this column is prepared for publication. The Commodity Market, which determines the price of world oil, would have a trading range breakout if Iranian gunboats break the isolation of Qatar and engage the U.S. Persian Gulf naval capability. However, such incidents would move traders for hours only.

Natural gas prices should continue to move upward as risk hedging begins to focus on buying gas and selling crude.  This is a contract which oil price risk is hedged
A laying of the risk of crude oil price declines with a simultaneous buying of natural gas.

Natural gas storage favors San Juan natural gas producers in the winter months ahead. This stimulates a regional Texas offset with new Eagle Ford dry gas promotion.
Lithium prices have sharply declined mainly because of South Korean mining production and investments. This explains the stock market and Tesla Motors. Tesla may not need its mining investment in Nevada to lower the cost of the battery pack.
This shift to downstream concentration which will re-start statewide competition for expanded facilities to relieve its Fremont, California plant. New Mexico economic development competed with three states to capture the giga-factory in Nevada. A second chance for Santa Fe to win in a second round? “

Energy group hopes to reduce foreign oil imports


by James Fenton

The full article is at–> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2016/06/14/energy-group-hopes-reduce-foreign-oil-imports/85855044/

“FARMINGTON – A group of oil and gas executives and energy policy experts from the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico’s piece of the Permian Basin are pushing a plan to restrict seafaring imports of foreign oil from coming into the U.S. in order to stabilize the oil and gas industry and bring back lost oilfield jobs.

The group’s plan, which would exempt crude oil imported from Mexico and Canada, is an effort to push back against the price wars the group said are being waged by OPEC, or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia.

Members met at the School of Energy at San Juan College Tuesday to promote  the “Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative,” which they say could be implemented in multiple phases within 90 days of the next administration, with the ultimate goal of reducing heavy crude oil imports to about 10 percent of demand.

Launched in November, the initiative aims to cut foreign oil imports enough to activate more domestic drilling rigs and boost domestic production to meet current demand levels within four years.

Former state legislator and Four Corners Economic Development Chief Operating Officer Tom Taylor said the drop in natural gas prices eight years ago and the fall of crude oil in 2014, has delivered prolonged pain to the regional economy.

“We find ourselves … in a situation now where we’re down about 6,000 jobs, most of those in the oil and gas industry,” Taylor said of the San Juan Basin. “We have about 11,000 people who have left (San Juan County) … So while we’re down 6,000 jobs and down 11,000 people, we’ve built seven fast-food restaurants, three more under construction, and two big box stores. It’s a different world out there.

“But the fact of the matter is that the economic base of the community is in trouble. And not only is the community in trouble, but the state of New Mexico is in trouble, and not only is New Mexico in trouble but our nation and its security. It’s all tied together. It’s a very difficult situation we find ourselves in when we have one country that can control oil prices. It goes beyond free trade. It’s a problem we need a solution to. We are at the dependence of foreign oil.”

Taylor said about a third of New Mexico’s general fund comes from the oil and gas industry in the form of taxes and fees.”

JOIN THE FIGHT TO GET OIL FIELD JOBS BACK! REDUCE FOREIGN OIL IMPORTS:


 

 

For Immediate Release Farmington, New Mexico
Contact: Dr. Daniel Fine 505-771-1865
Christa Rommé 505-566-3618
THE SAN JUAN BASIN IS JOINING THE FIGHT TO REDUCE FOREIGN OIL IMPORTS TO INCREASE LOCAL PRODUCTION
The Panhandle of West Texas, a center of American oil since early in the 20th century, answers OPEC and Saudi Arabia with a call for a Presidential Proclamation to establish quotas on imports of foreign oil. And they have asked the San Juan Basin to join this call. Presenters from Texas and New Mexico will be leading a local discussion about what measures can be taken to reduce our national dependency on foreign oil. Similar to “buy local” campaigns across the nation encouraging retail consumers to spend their dollars at home, this proclamation would have Americans buy oil produced in America. Demand for US production would then go up, putting recently laid-off workers back in the field. The United States should no longer allow Saudi Arabia and the middle east to manipulate our economy by crippling our ability to produce and use our own natural resources. We have been forced to comply with the consequences of decisions made by a country whose intent was to take over a “market share” that was ours and make it theirs. The results were oil prices plummeting to $26 a barrel.


The “bust” in oil exploration and production has left families, companies, both large and small, with bankruptcy and hundreds of thousands out of work. Since Thanksgiving of 2014, Saudi Arabia has increased its production to lower prices to shut-in unconventional oil in all areas of the US. It is a price war which has suspended the prospect of American energy self-sufficiency.


The Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative for oil import quotas on foreign oil is nothing new. It aims to revive the 1959 quota system of President Eisenhower who acted to sustain a healthy oil industry and middle class communities which it employs for reasons of national security. And it worked for 14 years to keep domestic oil from going out business because of foreign imports.


Import quotas on light tight oil will be 100% — no more imports within the first 60 days of the new American President’s term next year. Light tight oil or oil from shale is an American technology triumph and the pathway to abundance and security against foreign oil supply cut-off threats. Southwest and Dakota oil will be unbound. North American oil will avoid the risk of dependence on the world ocean as the transportation for imports. Oil from shale has so far supported national income savings in the balance of payments of over 500 billion dollars in the last five years.


President Eisenhower’s import quotas limited heavy sour oil to 10-12% of yearly American oil demand — enough to take care of Canada’s current exports to the United States.
The lower the oil price goes and the longer it stays there because of the Saudis flooding the market, the higher it will go and the longer it will stay there when demand gets greater than supply but it could be too late for the US because the US operators and other international companies are not investing in exploration, the oil that we will need in 5 to 10 years is not being discovered and developed today. OPEC cannot supply all the world’s needs. When demand outpaces supply, the price will skyrocket and stay there until the oil operations that are now curtailed can ramp back up. That may take years due to all the layoffs taking place today. All consumers will be hurt by the high prices. That would not happen if we had reasonable prices today to let us keep exploring for and developing new oil reserves for our future needs.


We are at a cross road and its time we take a stand. Imported oil is rapidly increasing and could or will return our country into the same dependency which began in the late 1970s and lasted to 2010; therefore, risking our national security. American investment in major oil projects has been stopped by the price war. So far OPEC and Saudi Arabia are over-producing in world conditions of over-supply to lower prices enough to prevent required replacement of shale reserves. This is the Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative’s answer to Doha and later OPEC in June and beyond:
Import Quotas will start a new cycle.


The presentation, featuring Dr. Daniel Fine with New Mexico Tech and New Mexico State Energy Policy, T. Greg Merrion and other industry experts will take place on Tuesday, June 14th from 11:00am – 12:45pm in the Merrion Room at the School of Energy at San Juan College, 5301 College Boulevard, Farmington. This event is free and open to the public.

NM Energy Outlook Summit: Forecasts hazy for industry in flux by Sal Christ Reporter Albuquerque Business First


For the complete article use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/blog/morning-edition/2015/11/nm-energy-outlook-summit-forecasts-hazyfor.html

Panelists at Business First’s second annual New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit yesterday offered but one common ground: Something needs to be done to turn the industry around.

Emceed by ABF publisher Candace Beeke, the event brought together Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech and a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources; Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy for PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM); Bob Gallagher, president of RMG Consulting; and Regina Wheeler, chief executive officer of Positive Energy Solar.
Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy at PNM Resources, speaks during Thursday’s New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit while Regina Wheeler (left), CEO of Positive Energy Solar, looks on.

Over the course of 90 minutes, which included a keynote speech delivered by Fine and a panel discussion, the group addressed questions about the state of the energy industry in New Mexico and the United States, what 2016 might look like for the oil and gas industry and possible solutions to the current industry slump. While driven, in part, by audience-submitted questions, everyone offered a much differing perspective.

In his keynote speech, Fine said he was “coming with realism and bad news” and believed that while no one can forecast the price of oil, “we should prepare for 2003 prices.” He estimated that the price of oil could drop to the $22 to $28 range by June 2016.

Fine also said that the state could see a 10 percent reduction in shale production by that time, as well. He cited increased foreign production of oil over the last couple of years, China’s stabilization at a lower growth rate, decreased commodity demand and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) price war with the U.S. shale industry.

New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit 2015 with Keynote leading energy expert Dr. Daniel Fine: Join us!


Join Albuquerque Business First for the 2nd Annual New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit. This Summit will offer business leaders unique access to energy insights that will affect your company in the year to come.

  • When: Thursday, November 12, 2015,7:30am-9:30am Add to my calendar
  • Where: Sandia Resort & Casino: Ballrooms A&BAlbuquerque NM
  • To register use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/event/115971#eventDetails
  • Sponsors

    Presenting Sponsor
    Supporting Sponsor
    Event Partner
    For more information on how your company can sponsor one of our events, please contact Tamra Fenstermaker at tfenstermaker@bizjournals.com or 505-348-8326.

    Event Information

    The second annual New Mexico Energy Outlook will offer business leaders unique access to energy insights that will affect your company in the year to come. Beginning with a keynote by Dr. Daniel Fine, this session will focus on how the evolving landscape of the energy industry and the world’s demand for energy will affect our state and economy. The 30-minute presentation will be followed by a panel discussion featuring executives from the top companies in New Mexico’s energy landscape. Moderated by Albuquerque Business First Publisher Candace Beeke, the panel will be driven by audience questions.

    Panelists include:

    • Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director, Center for Energy Policy
    • ConocoPhillips senior executive
    • Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy, PNM Resources
    • Regina Wheeler, CEO, Positive Energy Solar

    Session highlights include:

    • The OPEC price war and how it impacts NM
    • The price cycle for oil, natural gas and others, and outlook for prices
    • Production capacity – where it is rising, where it is falling
    • Outlook for employment in energy trades
    • Impact of and future for renewable energy in NM
    • Opportunities and challenges for the energy sector in NM as a whole
    • How the energy sector will shape the broader economy

    Daniel_Fine_Associate_Director_Center_for_Energy_Policy

    Keynote speaker:

    Dr. Daniel Fine
    Associate Director
    Center for Energy Policy

    New Mexico Tech

    Dr. Daniel Fine is the Associate Director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy and is a Senior Policy Analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources.

    He is a long time research associate at the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute (MIT). Fine is also a policy adviser on nonconventional oil and gas. He is co-editor of Resource War in 3-D: Dependence, Diplomacy and Defence, has contributed to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal and the Washington Times. He has given testimony on strategic natural resources before the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs and Energy and Natural Resources.

    ABOUT NEW MEXICO CENTER FOR ENERGY POLICY
    The New Mexico Center for Energy Policy (NMCEP) is the first community-centered response to the challenge of national energy security in the United States. Its location in Lea County reflects the New Mexico Southeast as a historic and contemporary source of energy production and technology. Energy policy-making in Washington and in state capitals is often limited to “witness” appearances from “locals”. Energy policy developed and promoted by an energy production community has been non-existent until now.

    Registration & Networking  | 7:30AM
    Breakfast and Program | 8:00AM – 9:30AM

    Sandia Resort & Casino has overnight accommodations at a reduced group rate of $159 until October 11, 2015. RESERVE OVERNIGHT ROOMS HERE.

Governor’s energy plan sets up New Mexico for new opportunities by Ripon Advance News Service


Governor’s energy plan sets up New Mexico for new opportunities by Ripon Advance News Service | Friday, Sep 25, 2015 @ 2:57pm For a link to the plan and the full article –> https://lnkd.in/e4mVTVk

New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez recently announced a sweeping, statewide energy plan aimed at embracing a wide array of energy sources, including oil and gas — which already accounts for more than $1 billion in yearly state revenues — solar, wind and new technologies. The far-reaching energy policy and implementation plan

entitled “Seizing our Energy Potential: Creating a More Diverse Economy in New Mexico,” is the state’s “first comprehensive energy policy and plan since 1991, nearly 25 years ago,” Michael Lonergan, Martinez’s press secretary, told Ripon Advance.

The plan put forth by Martinez, who is the nation’s first female Hispanic governor, calls for “an ‘all-of-the-above’ approach to energy development that promotes production from all sources” in order to create jobs, diversify a key sector of New Mexico’s economy and support the nation’s efforts to achieve energy independence, among other goals, Lonergan said this week.

Lonergan told Ripon Advance that the key components and initiatives of the plan include: improving New Mexico’s energy infrastructure; promoting greater production of all sources of energy; improving energy workforce training in the state’s higher education system; reducing freshwater consumption in production; streamlining regulatory processes; and exploring and potentially seizing on new energy opportunities.

Improving the state’s energy infrastructure, for example, will include new rail lines to improved electric transmission that will allow New Mexico to better move its energy and its products to markets in the Southwest and Southeast United States, as well as into Mexico and other markets.

In particular, rail from the Four Corners region to Interstate 40 would reduce the cost of transporting coal, crude oil and agricultural and other non-energy products from northwest New Mexico to markets throughout the state and beyond. Such improvements also would allow materials for energy production to be brought into New Mexico at a lower cost to producers.

In a statement unveiling her statewide energy plan earlier this month, Martinez called New Mexico “one of the most energy-rich and energy-diverse states in the nation.”

Editorial: Governor’s energy plan is excellent future blueprint


New Mexico has a wealth of energy resources. And now it has a comprehensive plan to help guide development of those riches to grow the state’s economy.

Last week at the 2015 Southeastern New Mexico Mayor’s Energy Summit in Carlsbad, Gov. Susana Martinez laid out a broad “all of the above” energy policy. “There is no reason we shouldn’t be an energy leader,” she later told attendees at the eighth annual Domenici Public Policy Conference in Las Cruces.

Her plan embraces a wide range of energy sources, ranging from oil and gas to solar, wind and up-and-coming technologies, such as “small modular reactors,” which must still be approved by the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

While the oil and gas industry has been – and still is – the backbone of the state’s energy economy (accounting for more than a billion dollars in revenues to the state each year), it’s clear there is plenty of opportunity for the growing renewable energy sector given New Mexico’s abundant sunshine, miles of windswept open spaces and nuclear experience and expertise.

One of the keys is development of more infrastructure – electricity transmission lines to move power generated by wind and solar, and new refineries and improved roads, rail and pipelines to transport resources in and out of the energy-producing areas in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the state.

It also proposes deployment of new battery storage technologies and exporting coal as utilities start using less of that resource as a result of agreements with the federal government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality.

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