Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘Oil Price’

Hedging threat and Venezuela Oil By Dr. Daniel Fine


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/08/27/hedging-threat-and-venezuela-oil/580510001/

“How can Saudi Arabia and OPEC behind them strike a second blow against shale oil producers in the Southwest? The first was the 2014-2017 price and market share war in which they raised production to put the higher cost Americans out of business.
This was partially abandoned at Algiers in a reversal to opt for a higher price for crude oil from $26 to the high $40 range. The marketing tool is lowering their production by 1,800,000 barrels per day.

The second blow is process.

The Saudi Arabian Oil Ministry and its state company, Saudi Aramco, negotiated in London with Glencore (world’s largest trading combined with mining), banks and hedge funds to see if they could reduce the liquidity necessary for American oil and gas shale producers to hedge forward to obtain a higher price.

Without access at only financial transactions costs to the “strip” or the forward price of oil at at least 10 percent higher than current prices “spot,” WPX and all the Permian-Delaware significant producers would not have survived the recent downturn in their current form.

If there is no difference between the price oil today and September 2018,  which is called the “contango,” this would be a problem of liquidity – no entity taking the other side against the oil and gas producer on a contract.  No cash would be bet against the oil and gas producer who sells forward one year. One side, for example, sells 70 percent of 2018 oil production at June 2018 prices in the present while the other side buys or covers, as the counterpart, the contract.

Saudi Arabia correctly followed data which demonstrated that despite the decline in the price of oil from $100 in 2014 to a low of $26 per barrel, oil producers hedged against the fall and largely survived.  Without hedging the producers would have negative cash flows and serious problems of debt to keep going.”

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Overcapacity and the price of oil Dr. Daniel Fine, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/06/25/overcapacity-and-price-oil/397050001/

“With the Saudi Arabian-American strategy of removing ISIS and terror roots in Middle East societies and governments, the global oil and gas service companies have new projects to expand oil capacity of Saudi Arabia. This moves Saudi Aramco into overcapacity production range and a Second Downturn in early 2019 as forecast in this column six months ago.

Saudi oil production capacity should increase to 13 million barrels per day with Haliburton and others working on projects to increase reserves. This is prepared to flow into export markets to deprive Occidental of its short- term export of domestic oil which the production cut-back under the 1,800,000 barrels per day OPEC and Russian “deal” provided as a temporary marketing opportunity.  The price of de-terrorism in the Middle East is more Saudi Arabian oil and lower world prices.  Saudi Arabian demand forecasts are no more than 1 percent per annum growth:  its new capacity addition could reach 4 percent per annum in the next five years following the service company projects signed weeks ago.

OPEC production and imports to the U.S are up as this column is prepared for publication. The Commodity Market, which determines the price of world oil, would have a trading range breakout if Iranian gunboats break the isolation of Qatar and engage the U.S. Persian Gulf naval capability. However, such incidents would move traders for hours only.

Natural gas prices should continue to move upward as risk hedging begins to focus on buying gas and selling crude.  This is a contract which oil price risk is hedged
A laying of the risk of crude oil price declines with a simultaneous buying of natural gas.

Natural gas storage favors San Juan natural gas producers in the winter months ahead. This stimulates a regional Texas offset with new Eagle Ford dry gas promotion.
Lithium prices have sharply declined mainly because of South Korean mining production and investments. This explains the stock market and Tesla Motors. Tesla may not need its mining investment in Nevada to lower the cost of the battery pack.
This shift to downstream concentration which will re-start statewide competition for expanded facilities to relieve its Fremont, California plant. New Mexico economic development competed with three states to capture the giga-factory in Nevada. A second chance for Santa Fe to win in a second round? “

Oil guru Fine was right on gas prices


The full article can be found here–> http://rdrnews.com/wordpress/blog/2015/11/28/oil-guru-fine-was-right-on-gas-prices/

Energy expert Dr. Daniel Fine, left, in March predicted the current low gasoline prices. Pictured with Fine during a meeting in Roswell in March are local oil men Rory McMinn of Reed & Stevens, center, and Bob Armstrong of Armstrong Energy Corp. (Jeff Tucker Photo)

An energy expert’s prediction in March that gasoline prices in New Mexico would dip to $1.65 a gallon has been proven true.
Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, said at a landmen’s association’s meeting in Roswell in March that gasoline prices in New Mexico would drop to as low as $1.60 a gallon this year as the United States and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries engage in a crude oil price war.
Gasoline prices in Bernalillo County dipped to $1.64 a gallon this week at some stations, according to GasBuddy.com. Gasoline prices in Chaves County were as low as $1.80 a gallon this week at Sam’s Club in Roswell.
In March, Fine predicted gasoline prices in the Albuquerque market in 2015 would rise slightly to $2.35 a gallon before leveling off somewhere between $2.35 and $1.65 per gallon. He said in March that gasoline prices in Albuquerque could ultimately drop to as low as $1.60 a gallon.
“We made it to $1.60 and I have an outline of where we’ll be in 2016,” Fine told the Daily Record this week. “I’m getting calls to return to Roswell to do the next year.”
Fine said fuel prices in the United States are at their lowest levels since 1998, unadjusted for inflation. Fine attributed the low gasoline prices to soft market demand and excess supplies of crude oil.
The United States has more crude oil reserves than it has had since 1933, Fine said.
Fine said he’s not so sure crude oil prices will rise any time soon. He said there is a lot of anticipation about a Dec. 4 meeting of OPEC in Vienna, Austria.
“There’s a little excitement in the market about what the Saudi Arabian position might be on the 4th,” Fine said. “What’s reported out is some language about stability. So the speculators are buying oil today. But I am very skeptical that this will last.”
Fine, who has been critical of OPEC, said the oil cartel is creating an imbalance in the marketplace by over-producing while crude prices continue to drop.
Fine said many economists assumed Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil producers would cut back production as crude oil prices plummeted, but he said that did no occur.
“From Thanksgiving (2014) on, we’re in this oil price war crisis,” Fine said.

The John Locke Foundation presents The GeoPolitics of Oil Price-Resource War with oil and gas expert Dr. Daniel Fine RSVP NOW!


The John Locke Foundation presents

The Geopolitics of Oil Price-Resource War

In this presentation, Dr. Fine will discuss Saudi Arabian market share strategy and its threat to U.S. higher-cost shale oil. He will review how it began, the impact on new capital expenditure and drilling, how American technology is fighting back, and the impact on the Western states.

About Dr. Fine
Dr. Daniel Fine is the Associate Director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy and is a Senior Policy Analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources. He has given testimony on strategic natural resources before the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Affairs and Energy and Natural Resources. Dr. Fine is co-editor of Resource War in 3-D: Dependence, Diplomacy and Defense, and has contributed to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, The Washington Times and the Energy Magazine/Daily Times, Farmington, New Mexico. Dr. Fine participated in the Atlantic Council Workshop on Central Asian Energy Policy and the Hudson Institute Russia-United States Relations Project (Oil and Gas). He was a member of the Director’s Advisory Board of the South Carolina Research Authority and a Research Associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Energy and Materials). He was also a contributor to the Harvard University Business School Study on Energy Futures.

Shaftesbury Luncheon talks are free and open to the public. An optional lunch is available for purchase at the event, or participants may brown bag a lunch if they choose.


Purchase Tickets for this Event Online -> http://www.johnlocke.org/events/event.html?id=1035

Join the San Juan Basin Energy Conference 2015! New Mexico Governor Martinez and CEO, WPX Energy Rick Muncrief are speakers!


Event Date and Time
Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Time: All day
Repeating Event: Daily;Until=3/26/2015 12:00am

Location: Henderson Fine Arts Center

Event Details

The continuing drop in oil prices and the opportunities for natural gas will be a focus of the 2015 San Juan Basin Energy Conference, set for March 24-25, at San Juan College in Farmington, NM.

“The conference will give those attending the opportunity to discuss and receive insights into the future of energy and the market it serves,” said Randy Pacheco, dean of the San Juan College School of Energy and the CEO of Four Corners Innovations. San Juan College School of Energy, Four Corners Innovations and New Mexico Center for Energy Policy (a division of New Mexico Tech) are sponsors of the event.

“We expect the 2015 conference to attract the same industry professionals who came in 2013, and who are willing to share their visions and knowledge of the industry,” Pacheco said. “The conference encourages networking and provides a positive environment for leaders to discuss their concerns and their expectations of the future of oil and gas and electrical generation.”

Conference attendees will have an opportunity to learn from keynote speaker Rick Muncrief, an industry professional who is familiar to many in the Farmington, NM, area.

Muncrief, who was named WPX Energy Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer in May, has ties to the San Juan Basin, and will speak to the expected 750 attendees on March 24. Before taking the helm at WPX  in its Tulsa, Okla., offices. Muncrief worked for ConocoPhillips and Burlington Resources locally and spent five years with Continental Resources.

Muncrief’s return to Farmington is anticipated by many who know him.

Bill Standley, former mayor of Farmington and now a municipal judge, remembers Muncrief as a man of, “intelligence and integrity,” he said. Standley said if he were a member of a board of directors of a major oil and gas company, he would invest in a chief executive officer of Muncrief’s caliber.

Muncrief recently made news in southwestern Pennsylvania when he announced WPX has decided to divest itself of its Marcellus Shale assets. WPX has approximately 160 active wells in dry gas areas in southern Pennsylvania, and has been drilling in the Marcellus since 2010. Muncrief and the board of directors of WPX decided to focus on New Mexico and two other areas of the county in which WPX has assets. Colorado, which has natural gas liquids, and North Dakota, along with New Mexico, where the company drills for oil, offer a positive return on investment, a spokesman said of the three states.

In addition to Muncrief, speakers expected to participate in the conference include Ken McQueen, also of WPX; David Martin, Secretary of the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department; Dr. Dan Fine, research associate for the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy/ New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; Steve Henke, president of the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association; and Marita Noon,executive director of Citizens’ Alliance for Responsible Energy, a lobby group funded by New Mexico oil and gas industry interests, and  the executive director for Energy Makes America Great Inc.

Other speakers have been invited to participate in the conference and those names will be released when they are confirmed.

This is the second San Juan Basin Energy Conference. The first one, held in March of 2013, attracted more than 450 people attending.

“The tremendous response from the leaders in the industry to our first conference, and the success we enjoyed from it, has set the bar pretty high for the 2015 conference,” said Randy Pacheco. “The cost of oil, the direction and future of the oil and gas/energy industry, and the vision of industry leaders will make this conference, just like the one in 2013, an event that will bring together people who have invested their time, experience and talents to an industry that remains a backbone of our economic foundation.”

For additional information, visit the conference web site at www.sanjuanbasinenergy.org; or call 505-566-3676.

Event Location

Henderson Fine Arts Center

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