Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘San Juan Basin’

Dr. Daniel Fine: Trump’s approach to oil and gas: a new course in the San Juan Basin


 

The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/10/30/fine-trump-new-approach-oil-and-gas-in-san-juan-basin/777153001/

It has been 70 years since a President of the United States has considered domestic oil and gas as a “power” in world affairs. With Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke charting a new course, the Trump Administration is considering a transfer of Federal Land management with natural resources to the Western States.
Coupled with Zinke’s proclamation of American energy world domination, a revolution on how to think about oil and gas in the San Juan Basin is taking place.
The Four Corners BLM management could move across Farmington to the New Mexico state office.  The Bureau of Land Management’s Washington control might move to Denver.
It is more than speeding up Applications for Petroleum Drilling (APD): it is who decides and implements Trump-Zinke. How is San Juan natural gas to advance American oil and gas first in a redesign of domestic resources on a world stage?
Farmington and Carlsbad would control, as New Mexico State offices of oil and gas, new rules with national and global meaning. The San Juan Basin future would have natural gas reserves managed for strategic and economic purposes in the Baltic and Black Seas.  Management would be drawn from New Mexico.
What is the cost for this historic transfer of power from Washington or a non-oil and gas Potomac?
The State of New Mexico must legislate expansion budgets to overcome the limitations of Santa Fe staff in numbers and expertise. Under State Oil and Gas Law, inspectors are needed to inspect wells (62,000).
Inspection of Federal oil and gas wells (transfer from Washington BLM) requires a budgetary alignment with the strategy and vision of Secretary Zinke.
There is a return to the economic development history of America. San Juan Basin natural gas does not depend on localized manufacturing alternatives into natural gas in the Four Corners.  Pipelines take care of markets.  The expansion to ultimate economic recovery is in the new policy of this Administration.
I was the lunch keynote speaker at the Jicarilla Apache Energy Conference in Dulce.  Indian nation natural gas must not be outside American oil and gas first. Investment and production is now a different opportunity. Deals with conventional oil and gas companies were part of the excitement.
Readers of this column in the Energy Magazine have followed a forecast made 11 months ago, in which I have seen warning signs of oversupply of world oil in 2019.
The Initial Public Offering (IPO) shares in Saudi Aramco is doubtful.  China or BP could buy non-controlling blocks of shares as an alternative. If this IPO fails, Saudi Aramco will have little reason to throttle OPEC production downward.
This would open the way for a trend-line similar to 2014. Saudi Arabia is in the first phase of instability.  What happens to Mohammed bin Salmon, the Crown Prince, lies in Qatar, and with the Kurds.
It is important to recognize that the IPO process called for the right of women to obtain driving permits. Underwriters were on notice that such discrimination would distract buyers of Saudi Aramco shares.
Hilcorp’s female staff at Dulce added that they (women in Saudi Arabia) must be 30 years of age and will not be able to drive at night.

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Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico

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How OPEC tried, but failed, to kill the Bakken By Patrick C. Miller | July 18, 2017


The full article is here-> http://www.northamericanshalemagazine.com/articles/2019/how-opec-tried-but-failed-to-kill-the-bakken

When OPEC ramped up its production in 2014 to drive down world oil prices, it was engaged in a strategy to put North Dakota’s Bakken shale play out of business, according to Daniel Fine, Ph.D., associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy.

“The downturn was a flush of flat-out production, and the target was the Bakken,” he said. “The Saudis understand the Bakken. They read everything. The most important consultants to OPEC are based in Houston—they’re Americans.”

Fine, a former MIT professor who’s also the energy policy project leader for the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources, spoke during the opening day of the Bakken Conference & Expo July 17-19 in Bismarck, North Dakota.

He was jointed on the panel by John Yates, president and founder of Abo Empire, to discuss New Mexico’s San Juan and Delaware basins. While Yates covered the economic impact of the basins on New Mexico, Fine explained why their futures are headed in opposite directions, as well as OPEC’s impact on world oil prices.

Fine noted that at one time, the San Juan Basin was No. 2 in U.S. gas production. In recent days, low gas prices have resulted in Conoco, Chevron and WPX announcing plans to sell their interests in the basin. This year, for the first time, the Delaware Basin in southern New Mexico will eclipse the San Juan Basin in gas production.

“What is the future of the San Juan Basin? The future is that in the last 60 to 70 years, only about half of the gas has been recovered, leaving 32 trillion cubic feet of gas,” Fine said.

Turning to the subject of world oil prices, Fine discussed his experience of studying OPEC since the 1970s and what he’s learned from it. For example, in 2014 when OPEC increased its production specifically to target the Bakken and other U.S. shale plays, Fine forecast that prices would fall to $28 to $23 a barrel while others expected them to rebound to $100 a barrel.

“The Saudi mind is not the Bakken,” he said. “The operators here go for very short-term results. Their balance sheet is quarter-to-quarter. Saudi Aramco and the OPEC producers are taught to think in five-year ranges. So I picked the five-year range in 2000 to 2003 and said this might be it. It was $23 to $28.”

Overcapacity and the price of oil Dr. Daniel Fine, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/06/25/overcapacity-and-price-oil/397050001/

“With the Saudi Arabian-American strategy of removing ISIS and terror roots in Middle East societies and governments, the global oil and gas service companies have new projects to expand oil capacity of Saudi Arabia. This moves Saudi Aramco into overcapacity production range and a Second Downturn in early 2019 as forecast in this column six months ago.

Saudi oil production capacity should increase to 13 million barrels per day with Haliburton and others working on projects to increase reserves. This is prepared to flow into export markets to deprive Occidental of its short- term export of domestic oil which the production cut-back under the 1,800,000 barrels per day OPEC and Russian “deal” provided as a temporary marketing opportunity.  The price of de-terrorism in the Middle East is more Saudi Arabian oil and lower world prices.  Saudi Arabian demand forecasts are no more than 1 percent per annum growth:  its new capacity addition could reach 4 percent per annum in the next five years following the service company projects signed weeks ago.

OPEC production and imports to the U.S are up as this column is prepared for publication. The Commodity Market, which determines the price of world oil, would have a trading range breakout if Iranian gunboats break the isolation of Qatar and engage the U.S. Persian Gulf naval capability. However, such incidents would move traders for hours only.

Natural gas prices should continue to move upward as risk hedging begins to focus on buying gas and selling crude.  This is a contract which oil price risk is hedged
A laying of the risk of crude oil price declines with a simultaneous buying of natural gas.

Natural gas storage favors San Juan natural gas producers in the winter months ahead. This stimulates a regional Texas offset with new Eagle Ford dry gas promotion.
Lithium prices have sharply declined mainly because of South Korean mining production and investments. This explains the stock market and Tesla Motors. Tesla may not need its mining investment in Nevada to lower the cost of the battery pack.
This shift to downstream concentration which will re-start statewide competition for expanded facilities to relieve its Fremont, California plant. New Mexico economic development competed with three states to capture the giga-factory in Nevada. A second chance for Santa Fe to win in a second round? “

Join the San Juan Basin Energy Conference 2015! New Mexico Governor Martinez and CEO, WPX Energy Rick Muncrief are speakers!


Event Date and Time
Date: Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Time: All day
Repeating Event: Daily;Until=3/26/2015 12:00am

Location: Henderson Fine Arts Center

Event Details

The continuing drop in oil prices and the opportunities for natural gas will be a focus of the 2015 San Juan Basin Energy Conference, set for March 24-25, at San Juan College in Farmington, NM.

“The conference will give those attending the opportunity to discuss and receive insights into the future of energy and the market it serves,” said Randy Pacheco, dean of the San Juan College School of Energy and the CEO of Four Corners Innovations. San Juan College School of Energy, Four Corners Innovations and New Mexico Center for Energy Policy (a division of New Mexico Tech) are sponsors of the event.

“We expect the 2015 conference to attract the same industry professionals who came in 2013, and who are willing to share their visions and knowledge of the industry,” Pacheco said. “The conference encourages networking and provides a positive environment for leaders to discuss their concerns and their expectations of the future of oil and gas and electrical generation.”

Conference attendees will have an opportunity to learn from keynote speaker Rick Muncrief, an industry professional who is familiar to many in the Farmington, NM, area.

Muncrief, who was named WPX Energy Inc.’s Chief Executive Officer in May, has ties to the San Juan Basin, and will speak to the expected 750 attendees on March 24. Before taking the helm at WPX  in its Tulsa, Okla., offices. Muncrief worked for ConocoPhillips and Burlington Resources locally and spent five years with Continental Resources.

Muncrief’s return to Farmington is anticipated by many who know him.

Bill Standley, former mayor of Farmington and now a municipal judge, remembers Muncrief as a man of, “intelligence and integrity,” he said. Standley said if he were a member of a board of directors of a major oil and gas company, he would invest in a chief executive officer of Muncrief’s caliber.

Muncrief recently made news in southwestern Pennsylvania when he announced WPX has decided to divest itself of its Marcellus Shale assets. WPX has approximately 160 active wells in dry gas areas in southern Pennsylvania, and has been drilling in the Marcellus since 2010. Muncrief and the board of directors of WPX decided to focus on New Mexico and two other areas of the county in which WPX has assets. Colorado, which has natural gas liquids, and North Dakota, along with New Mexico, where the company drills for oil, offer a positive return on investment, a spokesman said of the three states.

In addition to Muncrief, speakers expected to participate in the conference include Ken McQueen, also of WPX; David Martin, Secretary of the New Mexico Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department; Dr. Dan Fine, research associate for the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy/ New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology; Steve Henke, president of the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association; and Marita Noon,executive director of Citizens’ Alliance for Responsible Energy, a lobby group funded by New Mexico oil and gas industry interests, and  the executive director for Energy Makes America Great Inc.

Other speakers have been invited to participate in the conference and those names will be released when they are confirmed.

This is the second San Juan Basin Energy Conference. The first one, held in March of 2013, attracted more than 450 people attending.

“The tremendous response from the leaders in the industry to our first conference, and the success we enjoyed from it, has set the bar pretty high for the 2015 conference,” said Randy Pacheco. “The cost of oil, the direction and future of the oil and gas/energy industry, and the vision of industry leaders will make this conference, just like the one in 2013, an event that will bring together people who have invested their time, experience and talents to an industry that remains a backbone of our economic foundation.”

For additional information, visit the conference web site at www.sanjuanbasinenergy.org; or call 505-566-3676.

Event Location

Henderson Fine Arts Center

Link

Encana announces multi-million dollar drilling plans for 2014 in the San Juan Basin


http://www.daily-times.com/farmington-business/ci_24615895/encana-announces-multi-million-dollar-drilling-plans-2014

Encana announces multi-million dollar drilling plans for 2014 in the San Juan Basin

By Leigh Black Irvin The Daily Times

FARMINGTON — Encana Corporation announced earlier this month a new company strategy and vision, with much of that strategy being focused on the San Juan Basin where it plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in new oil and gas production beginning in 2014.

The announcement has prompted a flurry of speculation among those in the local oil and gas industry that the increased drilling will begin immediately after the first of the year.

In a Nov. 5 news release, the Calgary-based Encana outlined key points of its strategy, the first of which states that it will “focus its capital investment on five oil and liquids-rich resource plays in North America.”

The release goes on to state that Encana will “invest approximately 75 percent of its 2014 capital into five high return oil and liquids-rich plays: the Montney, Duvernay, DJ Basin, San Juan Basin and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale.”

In dollar amounts, this translates to 350 million to 400 million dollars in capital that Encana plans to invest in the San Juan Basin in 2014, said Encana spokesman Doug Hock.

“We will run two to four rigs in the area where oil and liquids are,” said Hock. “Our strategy is to develop oil and natural gas liquids plays in the Mancos Shale over the course of 2014.”

Hock said that to date, Encana has drilled some 20 wells in the Basin at a rate of approximately one well a month, and the increased production plans are a result of the positive drilling performance already seen in the basin, as well as economic conditions that make drilling in this area beneficial to the company. For more of the article use this link–> http://www.daily-times.com/farmington-business/ci_24615895/encana-announces-multi-million-dollar-drilling-plans-2014

Industry Touts Major Mancos Play Estimates point to 6B barrels of recoverable oil


By Emery Cowan Herald staff writer ecowan@durangoherald.com

FARMINGTON – The San Juan Basin could be headed toward a renaissance in natural-gas and oil drilling if rosy expectations touted by industry officials at Monday’s San Juan Basin Energy Conference hold true.

“In the southern part of the basin, the Mancos play has the potential to revitalize declining San Juan Basin oil production and also has a tremendous amount of future gas production in the northern part of the basin,” said Ron Broadhead, a principal petroleum geologist with the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources.

The conference, which drew about 500 attendees from across the nation to San Juan College, was the first to have a dedicated focus on the Mancos Shale, which stretches across the northwestern part of New Mexico and into southwestern Colorado.

After years of declining production in the San Juan Basin, companies are eyeing the shale play for both natural-gas and oil potential because of advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies that have helped operators unlock shale gas and oil across the nation.

“It’s reasonable that the Mancos Shale could be a really, really good shale play in the San Juan Basin,” said Darryl Williams, the vice president of subsurface for BP North America Gas Exploration and Production Co.

Other presenters were more direct.

“I’m bullish on the Mancos, we’ve already seen a number of wells drilled that are economic,” said T. Greg Merrion, president of Merrion Oil and Gas. “I’m looking forward to this next boom.”

With natural-gas prices hanging around $4 per thousand cubic feet, many conference speakers focused on the oil-producing window of the shale play located in the southern San Juan Basin.

The play has been estimated to contain up to 60 billion barrels of oil, about 10 percent of which is expected to be recoverable, according to estimates by Encana and Daniel Fine, a senior energy analyst with the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy.

The possibility of a resurgence had some speakers proclaiming the beginning of a new era of economic prosperity for northwest New Mexico.

“These are happy times again,” former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici said. For more of the article go to —> http://durangoherald.com/article/20130318/NEWS01/130319558/0/FRONTPAGE/Industry-touts-major-Mancos-Shale-play

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