Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘science’

Dr. Daniel Fine: OPEC oil and ours, who wins? Daily Times 10/29/16


The full article is here->  http://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2016/10/29/fine-opec-oil-and-ours-who-wins/92440428/

This is an excerpt of the article ”

Has the oil price and market share war ended with a Saudi Arabian win?  Or, as some fund managers and speculators argue, has Midland won? We are now in a trading range high of $50 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate.

Looking back two years, Wall Street, the oil and gas industry and its trade associations got it all wrong. I was a minority of one in New Mexico with my OPEC analysis of a low of $23 to $28 per barrel which was realized earlier this year.  Once again there is triumphalism and  hubris about winning the war against OPEC.

What is it all about?  If OPEC agrees to freeze production at August output that would put OPEC between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day. In 2013,  OPEC was below 30 million.   If they “freeze” it will be at 2.5 million more than early 2014 while our production had dropped almost 1.5 million.

In other words,  OPEC oil expanded its market share and more significantly has displaced our oil here at home in the American market by nearly one million barrels per barrel.  This is a double win for OPEC and Saudi Arabia:  more of their oil imported into our market and fewer barrels of our oil produced, which is the loss of rigs and jobs and a painful downturn.

The Permian Basin and its Delaware Basin extension into New Mexico has become the new North Slope  Alaska of the 1970s.  It is there that drilling rigs and well completions will be re-activated next year.  The “breakeven” price is lower because of  geology and cost-cutting service contracts.   The downturn contracts, however, will expire and non-Haliburton contractors will ask for more.   Margins will tighten as costs increase.   But North Dakota has leveled off and Eagle Ford is not the Permian.”

Oil leaders: OPEC threatening U.S. economy and New Mexico’s lifeblood; Nation has lost 400,000 oil and gas jobs in past two years


The full article is here-> http://rdrnews.com/wordpress/blog/2016/10/08/oil-leaders-opec-threatening-u-s-economy-and-new-mexicos-lifeblood-nation-has-lost-400000-oil-and-gas-jobs-in-past-two-years/

Dan Fine, an oil economist with the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, speaks at a conference in Carlsbad recently about how foreign oil imports are hurting the American oil industry. Fine said OPEC has flooded the U.S. market with foreign oil since 2014 in an intentional effort to put U.S. producers out of business, while Saudi Arabian-backed companies are trying to buy American companies in an effort to control the flow of oil within U.S. borders. (Hobbs News-Sun Photo)

CARLSBAD — Oil experts say America is under attack by Saudi Arabia and OPEC, but instead of bombs, the OPEC oil cartel is dropping millions of barrels of oil on the U.S. economy in a clear effort to undermine the nation’s oil producers and kill any chance of American energy independence.
The first to feel the flood of foreign oil into the U.S. are the independent oil producers, whose stripper wells in Texas alone account for 20 percent of the nation’s oil and gas production, said Judy Stark, executive vice president of the The Panhandle Producers & Royalty Owners Association.
Stark was one of the half dozen speakers at an event of 25 people Sept. 27 in Carlsbad where the Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative, a group of independents seeking import quotas on foreign oil, met to announce their “white paper” that will be presented to the next president.
“We know OPEC has toyed with our market for many years but what I see coming now is a threat, without a doubt, to our national security,” Stark said. “The Middle East wants control of the U.S. market. When they came out and decided to flood the market with oil and drive U.S. producers out of business, their whole point was to take back their lost market share — our production. They are telling us is they are not going to let us produce our own natural resources. Guess what? They have done a pretty good job.”
The Sept. 27 Carlsbad meeting was a first battle cry that Dan Fine, a co-founder of the initiative and oil economist with the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, said won’t be taken up by the nation for two years — when the rest of the country wakes up and finds it is too late to stop OPEC from controlling America’s energy industry.
“We are pioneers,” Fine said. “My point is, we are sitting here today 18 months to two years ahead of everyone. Sometime in early 2018, the country will discover what we are having a discussion about here today.”

What’s at stake?

What’s at stake is some 276 billion barrels of oil reserves now estimated to exist in the United States.
According to Fine, that number surpasses what Saudi Arabia has and they are terrified. Fine quoted Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, concerning the shale oil discoveries made in the United States.
“The United States has increased oil production by an enormous 65 percent over the past five years,” Fine said, quoting Hamm’s statement. “We can and should use our nearly unlimited oil and gas supplies to drive a stake through the heart of OPEC forever.”

New Mexico Tech Hosts first of its kind forum on Induced Seismicity


New Mexico Tech is hosting a first-of-its-kind workshop that will address the relationship between petroleum drilling and earthquakes, or “induced seismicity.”

The event will feature a series of guest speakers and will be August 21, 2014 in Fidel Center Ballroom on campus in Socorro. The event starts at 9 a.m., with three speakers in the morning and four speakers after lunch.

Over the past few decades, scientists have been examining the relationship between oil exploration – specifically hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) and horizontal drilling – and the increasing number of small earthquakes in the same areas. Several studies have examined the timing and location of seismic activity in Arkansas, Ohio, New Mexico and other states.

“A growing number of Earth scientists are looking at the relationship between oil exploration and seismic activity,” said Dr. Van Romero, Vice President of Research at New Mexico Tech. “With this workshop, we hope to place New Mexico Tech researchers at the forefront of the discussions about the topic.”

Romero will open the day-long event with a welcome to all participants. Hydrology professor Dr. Mark Person of New Mexico Tech is coordinating the event.

He said, “This is becoming a more important topic in recent years due to the large volumes of produced saline water that must be re-injected into deep subsurface reservoirs. If we can get a firm handle on the mechanisms controlling seismicity associated with saline water disposal practices, hopefully we can come up with some practical suggestions for best management practices.”

Guest speakers include the following:

Dr. Mark Person, New Mexico Tech – “Induced Seismicity events in the Midcontinent U.S.A.”
Dr. David Dempsey and Dr. Sharad Kelkar, Los Alamos National Lab, “Couple Geomechanical Hydrologic Models”
Dr. Andrew Delorey, Los Alamos National Lab, “Probing the Critical Stress State In Reservoirs”
Dr. Sue Bilek, New Mexico Tech, “Seismic Monitoring of Induced Seismic Events”
Dr. Sutin Holland and Dr. Randy Keller, Oklahoma Geological Survey, “Oklahoma Seismicity and Potential Cases of Induced Seismicity”
Dr. Reid Grigg and Dr. Bob Balch, New Mexico Tech, “Induced Seismicity in Paradise Valley, Utah”
Dr. Peter Mozley, New Mexico Tech, “Field Observations of Sedimentary and Crystalline Basement Fault Permeability”
The workshop is free and open to the public. To register, please email Gina Chavez at gchavez@admin.nmt.edu.

– NMT –

By Thomas Guengerich/New Mexico Tech

Dr. Daniel Fine discusses North Carolina’s approach to shale gas and hydraulic fracturing


Dr. Daniel Fine discusses North Carolina’s approach to shale gas and hydraulic fracturing.

via Dr. Daniel Fine discusses North Carolina’s approach to shale gas and hydraulic fracturing.

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