Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Archive for the ‘science’ Category

Dr. DANIEL FINE’s OBITUARY Washington Post 11/13/22


The Washington Post Obituary is here as it appeared in print-> https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/washingtonpost/name/daniel-fine-obituary?id=37376417

FINE 

DR. DANIEL FINE 


Dr. Daniel Fine unexpectantly passed away Monday, September 26, 2022, at Aventura Hospital, Aventura Florida. Dan Fine was a great American patriot. Our nation lost a real hero at 88. 

Daniel Fine predicted the end of nations. He predicted the Fall of the Soviet Union in the cold war in his seminal work Resource War in 3-D. This was a major assessment in the raw materials sector of U.S. national security and foreign policy. He redefined the Cold War. In a meeting with William De Clerk, then President of South Africa, Dr. Fine predicted that apartheid would fall. Dr. Fine helped win as well from the Yeltsin Government the contract for the second largest copper mine in the world, Udokan. Three American Presidents got to know Dr. Fine, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and Joe Biden. Through interviews, tours of MIT, and campaign stops. He knew President Reagan in briefings and many of his administrative offices. 

Daniel Irwin Fine came into the world on Tuesday, June 12, 1934, in New Jersey. The firstborn son of Bill and Eve Fine. He would see his future wife, Helen Fine, at nine years of age in a movie in Hudson NY. Not knowing her yet, as the most beautiful blonde girl in the movie. She became his wife for 65 years of marriage and the love of his life. Helen Fine passed away from Cancer on March 1, 2022. Daniel Fine was a proud soldier in the Army during the Korean Conflict. He used the GI Bill to pay for his college. 

Returning to America, he attended Georgetown University. He was a Gold Key candidate and top of his class. His first degree was in Foreign Service. 

He went on to the University of Florida to get his Ph.D. under the legendary Manning J. Dauer to study and teach political science. Dr. Fine became a pioneer in African studies and furthered greatly the civil rights movement in the south. Professor Clem Cottingham was a lifetime friend and leader in the civil rights movement. Professor Cottingham invited Daniel and the whole Fine family to write a study on African politics for the Ford Foundation while living in Nairobi, Kenya. 

At Harvard University, he was honored by the University as a lifelong Harvard Fellow. At MIT he led the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute with Professor John Elliot and later Professor John Sadoway to create new educational/business technology ventures. While at MIT he published in the International Outlook of Busines Week. He wrote exclusively for the Washington Times; Midland Reporter Telegram, Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Farmington Daily Times. He spoke at Tuft’s Fletcher School for Law and Diplomacy many times and had a room reserved in his honor. Daniel Fine authored, lastly, the state of New Mexico Energy Policy in effect today. Dan Fine’s actions transcended the times. He was sui generis. One of a kind. At the last, he heard the music of Wagner’s Rienzi 

“The Golden orb your heart impressed.” Services previously held.

Published by The Washington Post on Nov. 13, 2022.

Internationally renowned energy expert dies (Dr. Daniel Fine)


BY KEVIN ROBINSON-AVILA / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER  
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28TH, 2022 AT 4:51PM

As an internationally renowned scholar and expert on energy markets and geopolitics, Daniel Fine helped shape the thoughts and decisions of policy makers and industry leaders over decades in Washington, D.C., and in New Mexico.

A lifelong Harvard fellow and research associate with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Fine had a direct influence on government affairs, frequently providing expert guidance on energy issues and international relations among the top echelons of public and private agencies.

And, for nearly two decades, Fine devoted his attention to New Mexico through the Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, first as head of the university’s Center for Energy Policy, and then as a research associate who led conferences, projects and initiatives across the state.

Fine, 88, died in Miami on Sept. 26, following complications from surgery.

To those who knew him, Fine was a brilliant, outgoing scholar who dedicated his life to public service, readily sharing his knowledge and experience with everyone. But above all, he was always a true “gentleman,” said former New Mexico Tech President Dan Lopez.

“He was a prince of a man, always cordial and never intrusive,” Lopez told the Journal. “He was gentle, thoughtful, knowledgeable and very kind. I’ll miss him.”

Since 2004, when Fine moved to New Mexico with Helen, his wife of 65 years, the scholar left an indelible mark.

Fine helped coordinate a statewide initiative under former Gov. Susana Martinez to forge a new, strategic plan for energy development. He organized public meetings and conferences across the state to gather input on the potential for everything from oil and gas to solar and wind, analyzing opportunities, challenges and public policies that could assist local communities, said T. Greg Merrion of Merrion Oil and Gas in Farmington.

“He traveled around the state and met with all kinds of people from many different sectors,” Merrion said.

Daniel Fine at the Santa Fe Railyards. Fine, an internationally renowned scholar and energy expert, died Sept. 26, 2022. (Courtesy of William Fine)

He worked for years with local leaders in the state’s northwest region, helping to organize a San Juan Basin Energy Conference there. And he frequently presented to Four Corners Economic Development on energy issues and world affairs.

“He would talk about everything, from the war in Ukraine to oil and gas prices and elections,” Merrion said. “He was actually scheduled to speak in late September, but he died suddenly and very unexpectedly.”

Fine provided expert analysis as well for New Mexico legislators, offering insight on the local impact of world oil and gas prices, said former Democratic state Sen. John Sapien.

“His analysis was always right on the money,” Sapien told the Journal. “He opened our eyes to how fragile the state budget is based on oil and gas.”

But while Fine’s local influence is broadly recognized, his national impact is less known, largely reflecting the scholar’s humble manner.

“He led an incredible life, but he was very modest,” son William Fine told the Journal. “He didn’t go around telling people about all the things he did.”

Born in Newark, New Jersey, Fine lived most of his life on the East Coast.

As a young man, he fought in the civil rights movement, organizing protest events in southern states, first as a doctoral student in political science at the University of Florida, and then as a professor there.

“He organized black Freedom Riders in Florida,” William said. “He and my mom frequently demonstrated and were jailed. At one point, the KKK threatened to kill him.”

Fine knew both Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X.

“He met and coordinated with them,” William said.

He also had a passion for African studies, which he taught for years. In fact, he took his family — including William, wife Helen, and daughter Sharon — to Kenya for two years in the 1970s under a Ford Foundation research grant.

But 1975 marked a sharp turning point for Fine. He refocused on energy issues and geopolitics following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ world oil embargo.

Fine remained in academia as an MIT research associate. But he started working directly with industry and government, providing expert advice and guidance to public and private leaders and agencies.

He co-edited a landmark 1980 book — “The Resource War in 3-D: Dependency, Diplomacy, Defense” — that included insight from national experts on U.S. dependency on imported natural resources. It had a significant impact on public thought and policy under former President Ronald Reagan, leading to congressional testimony by Fine, and sought-after advice from senior policy advisers in government and Washington think tanks.

He also had private sit downs with former presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, according to William.

In addition, he advised on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union, having traveled to Russia more than 30 times. And he was a frequent contributor to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Washington Times, among other publications.

“He did a lot of things for this country at high levels of government, but he always maintained a low profile,” William said. “Some of the stuff he did was top secret during the Cold War.”

Apart from his son and daughter, William and Sharon, Fine is survived by younger brother Jim, 83. Fine’s wife, Helen, died of cancer on March 1, 2022.

The full article in the Albuquerque Journal is here-> https://www.abqjournal.com/2544351/internationally-renowned-energy-expert-dies.html

Invitation to the Non-Government Helium Conference Albuquerque December 1: US National Security and the NAVAJO NATION


TO RSVP AND SEE THE CONFERENCE AGENDA USE THIS LINK -> https://www.nmt.edu/research/research_helium_conference.php

Balloon Museum

9201 Balloon Museum Dr. NE Albuquerque, NM 87113News November 15, 2021       

*General Electric Health has joined the Conference as a panelist   To request to attend click here!   

TimeSessionSpeaker
9:00  AM              Introductions 
9:15 AMHelium Stockpile Sam BurtonDirector U.S. Bureau of Land Managment, Helium Program and Stockpile
10:05 AMPhysicist  Moses Chan PhysicistPennsylvania State University
10:40 AMLinde Matthew ThomasProcessor and MarketLinde
11:00 AMTrident Airships J. Mark LambrightChairmanTrident Airships
11:30 AMNavajo Oil and Gas for the Navajo Nation Navajo Nation 
12:10 PMLunchSponsored by: Navajo Oil & Gas and Linde 
1:10 PMGuided Tour of the Balloon Museum ManagerBalloon Museum

Content: Geology and ExplorationUses and Science U.S. Government Stockpile and Policy in Market:  History and ClosureExtraction and ProcessingMarket with new International sources and competitionSpecial Reference to Semi-Conductors and Medical TechnologyHelium Airships Revival:  Freight and TourismDefense Interests and ProvisionNavajo Oil and Gas Company for Navajo Nation:  A New ChallengeFuture of Helium supply in the U.S.


Dr. Dan Fine and T. Greg Merrion – The Energy Outlook Presentation – Video

Last week 4CED hosted energy thought leader Dr. Dan Fine who spoke on the topic of the future energy outlook under the Biden administration and implications for San Juan County. If you missed it, the meeting was recorded and is posted to the 4CED website.

Watch it here-> https://www.screencast.com/t/ge0EUXjjgqPa

Analysis: Electric cars and the Permian: Saudi Arabia in Lee County by Dr. Daniel Fine


The complete article

“Some 30,000 children marched in Belgium weeks ago against Climate Change. It is only a matter of two years before a few members of Congress, alone with only cameras today, will march at the head of crowds of 500,000 down Pennsylvania Avenue.

It will have its colors; green  — and yellow for the French — as 2020 arrives.

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham placed the state in the march which calls for America to join the Paris Agreement on climate change when she joined the U.S. Climate Alliance. But is it all for Green Energy without technology?

So far there is nothing on the road that eliminates carbon. The Green Deal is loaded: it offers “Green Energy” with diversionary political baggage.

Is it around the corner? It is. In six years, Audi-Porsche-VW will have an electric car on I-25 that will be zero-emissions, cost $27,000 (today’s dollar) with a range that beats Tesla.

Too soon to shake heads negatively. The surprise is a mass electric car with a German engineering in a Ford. Indeed, Ford will no doubt bid for the license is this writer’s forecast.

The revolutionary change is green energy and colorless technology. The kids in Belgium would be getting drivers licenses by then. What happens to I-25 or 550?”

Our View: Limiting oil imports would help to protect American producers


By A-J Editorial Board

The full article is here-> http://lubbockonline.com/filed-online/2016-04-28/our-view-limiting-oil-imports-would-help-protect-american-producers#.Vyf6UPkrLIU

“When the price of oil drops, so does the cost of gasoline. But while people are enjoying paying lower prices at gasoline pumps, plunges in oil prices can cause economic damage in Texas.

And it can put American oil producers out of business when the price of foreign oil imports gets cheaper than the costs of extracting oil from the ground in the U.S.

Oil producers in the Panhandle recently announced the Panhandle Import Reduction Initiative. Their hope is to limit the amount of oil that can be imported from other countries.

We wish them success in getting sympathetic ears to hear their initiative and gathering like-minded people to help further it.

They are right that a limitation should be set on the amount of oil imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Representatives of OPEC’s 18 nations recently met in Doha, Qatar. Among their topics of discussion was whether to freeze oil production levels.

The nations didn’t reach an agreement on the subject.

“OPEC and Russia and various countries met and decided they weren’t going to freeze oil and, in fact, OPEC said they will increase production again. This will drive the price down to $26 (a barrel) again,” said oil producer Tom Cambridge.”

This is what an oil bust looks like by Jonathan Thompson


Low prices have energy companies and communities reeling as rig counts plummet and unemployment climbs.

The full article is here-> http://www.hcn.org/articles/this-is-what-an-oil-bust-looks-like

“In early March, Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, told a gathering of tribal energy officials that the oil bust is officially on. Those gathered, however, sure as heck didn’t need an expert to tell them that. In the oil and gas patches it has become clear that the economic gains of the so-called shale revolution are being wiped away by one of the worst fossil fuel downturns in U.S. history.

Now, the oil companies are crying for help. First, they got the crude oil export ban lifted. Next they want proposed federal rules on methane emissions weakened or scrapped. As if any of that will help.

Back in 2010, the price of a barrel of Brent crude (the international oil price benchmark) topped $80. That made it profitable to extract oil from tight shale formations, which is especially costly. A drilling frenzy ensued, domestic oil production skyrocketed, oil companies raked in profits and oil patch communities prospered.

But all that new oil on the market, plus China’s slowing economic growth, began to dampen oil prices in the summer of 2014. Instead of curtailing production to keep prices afloat, OPEC’s leaders launched a thinly veiled price war, clearly aimed at putting U.S. producers out of business. Here are some indicators that OPEC won the war:

The U.S. rig count has collapsed to levels not seen since, well, ever. With both oil and natural gas prices at near-record lows, it simply doesn’t make economic sense to spend up to $10 million to drill a well. So the rigs are shutting down. In September 2014, 1,931 oil and gas rigs were operating in the U.S.; today there are just 476. That’s a 75 percent decrease, and it’s still some 50 percent lower than the 1987 count, which followed what was considered the biggest, baddest bust ever, until now. Tom Dugan, who runs an oil and gas production company in northwest New Mexico, told the Farmington Daily Times, “It’s the hardest bust I’ve been through and I have been in this business for 57 years.”

Energy policy expert says oil slump a bust


by James Fenton, jfenton@daily-times.com5:02 p.m. MST March 5, 2016

The complete article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2016/03/05/energy-policy-expert-says-oil-slump-bust/81289608/

FARMINGTON — “It’s officially a “bust.”

That’s the verdict from Daniel Fine, one of Gov. Susana Martinez’s senior advisers on energy policy. The U.S. oil and gas industry — and the San Juan Basin — is in a “bust” period, Fine said Tuesday at an inter-tribal energy conference at San Juan College’s School of Energy.

“This is what a bust is. You lose the workforce,” said Fine, who is associate director at New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech. “Loss to the country and to the Southwest will be the workforce. It will be decimated at levels of less than $30 a barrel (of crude oil).”

And 2015 was a year of layoffs and cutbacks.

Since the collapse of oil prices on the commodities market in fall of 2014, the number of  workers laid off from local oil and gas companies — from the large corporations to the smaller independents — has been in the thousands.

“We’re in a ‘bust.’  So be ahead of the curve, and think ahead in this business by at least six months,” Fine told the Native American and non-tribal energy leaders and business people in the Merrion conference room at the new $15.8 million school.

He said looming federal regulations such as the the U.S. Bureau of Land Management’s proposed Onshore Oil and Gas Orders Nos. 3, 4 and 5 along with proposed updates to its rule aimed at reducing “fugitive” atmospheric methane from oil and gas operations were doubling the pain already caused by low crude oil prices. He said that a third of all U.S. oil and gas producers — especially those burdened with debt — will inevitably go bankrupt.

But Fine’s sobering analysis wasn’t without one ray of hope for the industry.”

Fine: Washington, D.C., on oil and gas


by Dr. Daniel Fine, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy

The complete article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2015/12/28/fine-washington-dc-oil-and-gas/77979916/

The “deal” between the parties over the energy future of the United States and the San Juan Basin at the end of 2015 was the most misguided example of politics at the fuel pump since the 1970s. Then it was retail price control and now it’s a free-for-all in the price of oil in the world market with West Texas Crude approaching 10-year lows.

Lifting the restriction on exporting crude oil adds American oil to a world market which is over-supplied. Expect no cash flow increase for American producers and still lower world prices than with the restriction or ban in place.

This is not the place to assess the other side of the “deal.” However, tax credit extensions for wind and solar as alternative fuels to replace coal and later natural gas are no longer of concern to the Republican Party in Congress.

With petroleum economics based on market prices, there is virtually no way that the “deal” will bring about tens of thousands of new jobs in the oil and gas fields. How does exporting crude oil lead to increased drilling and rig deployment if this increases supply in an oversupplied world market? On the contrary, it leads to lower prices and negative cash flows for producers who must cut their workforces.

If oil and gas prices rebound in the next three years, the alternative fuels are beneficiaries as tax credits shape new non-fossil fuel investment, offsetting the risk of lower oil and gas prices, This was no doubt the objective of the climate change politics of Paris and the Democratic Party in Congress as well as the White House.

Although U.S. oil refiners will have a transportation cost tax adjustment from the “deal,” what prevents them from buying foreign oil at lower prices than American oil (North Sea Brent at declining prices)?

Daniel Fine is associate director, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech, and project leader of the Energy Policy, state of New Mexico, Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources. The opinions he expresses in this column are his own.

NM Energy Outlook Summit: Forecasts hazy for industry in flux by Sal Christ Reporter Albuquerque Business First


For the complete article use this link–> http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/blog/morning-edition/2015/11/nm-energy-outlook-summit-forecasts-hazyfor.html

Panelists at Business First’s second annual New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit yesterday offered but one common ground: Something needs to be done to turn the industry around.

Emceed by ABF publisher Candace Beeke, the event brought together Dr. Daniel Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech and a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State Department of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources; Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy for PNM Resources (NYSE: PNM); Bob Gallagher, president of RMG Consulting; and Regina Wheeler, chief executive officer of Positive Energy Solar.
Ron Darnell, senior vice president of public policy at PNM Resources, speaks during Thursday’s New Mexico Energy Outlook Summit while Regina Wheeler (left), CEO of Positive Energy Solar, looks on.

Over the course of 90 minutes, which included a keynote speech delivered by Fine and a panel discussion, the group addressed questions about the state of the energy industry in New Mexico and the United States, what 2016 might look like for the oil and gas industry and possible solutions to the current industry slump. While driven, in part, by audience-submitted questions, everyone offered a much differing perspective.

In his keynote speech, Fine said he was “coming with realism and bad news” and believed that while no one can forecast the price of oil, “we should prepare for 2003 prices.” He estimated that the price of oil could drop to the $22 to $28 range by June 2016.

Fine also said that the state could see a 10 percent reduction in shale production by that time, as well. He cited increased foreign production of oil over the last couple of years, China’s stabilization at a lower growth rate, decreased commodity demand and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) price war with the U.S. shale industry.