Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Archive for the ‘Opec’ Category

Dr. DANIEL FINE’s OBITUARY Washington Post 11/13/22


The Washington Post Obituary is here as it appeared in print-> https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/washingtonpost/name/daniel-fine-obituary?id=37376417

FINE 

DR. DANIEL FINE 


Dr. Daniel Fine unexpectantly passed away Monday, September 26, 2022, at Aventura Hospital, Aventura Florida. Dan Fine was a great American patriot. Our nation lost a real hero at 88. 

Daniel Fine predicted the end of nations. He predicted the Fall of the Soviet Union in the cold war in his seminal work Resource War in 3-D. This was a major assessment in the raw materials sector of U.S. national security and foreign policy. He redefined the Cold War. In a meeting with William De Clerk, then President of South Africa, Dr. Fine predicted that apartheid would fall. Dr. Fine helped win as well from the Yeltsin Government the contract for the second largest copper mine in the world, Udokan. Three American Presidents got to know Dr. Fine, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and Joe Biden. Through interviews, tours of MIT, and campaign stops. He knew President Reagan in briefings and many of his administrative offices. 

Daniel Irwin Fine came into the world on Tuesday, June 12, 1934, in New Jersey. The firstborn son of Bill and Eve Fine. He would see his future wife, Helen Fine, at nine years of age in a movie in Hudson NY. Not knowing her yet, as the most beautiful blonde girl in the movie. She became his wife for 65 years of marriage and the love of his life. Helen Fine passed away from Cancer on March 1, 2022. Daniel Fine was a proud soldier in the Army during the Korean Conflict. He used the GI Bill to pay for his college. 

Returning to America, he attended Georgetown University. He was a Gold Key candidate and top of his class. His first degree was in Foreign Service. 

He went on to the University of Florida to get his Ph.D. under the legendary Manning J. Dauer to study and teach political science. Dr. Fine became a pioneer in African studies and furthered greatly the civil rights movement in the south. Professor Clem Cottingham was a lifetime friend and leader in the civil rights movement. Professor Cottingham invited Daniel and the whole Fine family to write a study on African politics for the Ford Foundation while living in Nairobi, Kenya. 

At Harvard University, he was honored by the University as a lifelong Harvard Fellow. At MIT he led the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute with Professor John Elliot and later Professor John Sadoway to create new educational/business technology ventures. While at MIT he published in the International Outlook of Busines Week. He wrote exclusively for the Washington Times; Midland Reporter Telegram, Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Farmington Daily Times. He spoke at Tuft’s Fletcher School for Law and Diplomacy many times and had a room reserved in his honor. Daniel Fine authored, lastly, the state of New Mexico Energy Policy in effect today. Dan Fine’s actions transcended the times. He was sui generis. One of a kind. At the last, he heard the music of Wagner’s Rienzi 

“The Golden orb your heart impressed.” Services previously held.

Published by The Washington Post on Nov. 13, 2022.

Internationally renowned energy expert dies (Dr. Daniel Fine)


BY KEVIN ROBINSON-AVILA / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER  
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28TH, 2022 AT 4:51PM

As an internationally renowned scholar and expert on energy markets and geopolitics, Daniel Fine helped shape the thoughts and decisions of policy makers and industry leaders over decades in Washington, D.C., and in New Mexico.

A lifelong Harvard fellow and research associate with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Fine had a direct influence on government affairs, frequently providing expert guidance on energy issues and international relations among the top echelons of public and private agencies.

And, for nearly two decades, Fine devoted his attention to New Mexico through the Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, first as head of the university’s Center for Energy Policy, and then as a research associate who led conferences, projects and initiatives across the state.

Fine, 88, died in Miami on Sept. 26, following complications from surgery.

To those who knew him, Fine was a brilliant, outgoing scholar who dedicated his life to public service, readily sharing his knowledge and experience with everyone. But above all, he was always a true “gentleman,” said former New Mexico Tech President Dan Lopez.

“He was a prince of a man, always cordial and never intrusive,” Lopez told the Journal. “He was gentle, thoughtful, knowledgeable and very kind. I’ll miss him.”

Since 2004, when Fine moved to New Mexico with Helen, his wife of 65 years, the scholar left an indelible mark.

Fine helped coordinate a statewide initiative under former Gov. Susana Martinez to forge a new, strategic plan for energy development. He organized public meetings and conferences across the state to gather input on the potential for everything from oil and gas to solar and wind, analyzing opportunities, challenges and public policies that could assist local communities, said T. Greg Merrion of Merrion Oil and Gas in Farmington.

“He traveled around the state and met with all kinds of people from many different sectors,” Merrion said.

Daniel Fine at the Santa Fe Railyards. Fine, an internationally renowned scholar and energy expert, died Sept. 26, 2022. (Courtesy of William Fine)

He worked for years with local leaders in the state’s northwest region, helping to organize a San Juan Basin Energy Conference there. And he frequently presented to Four Corners Economic Development on energy issues and world affairs.

“He would talk about everything, from the war in Ukraine to oil and gas prices and elections,” Merrion said. “He was actually scheduled to speak in late September, but he died suddenly and very unexpectedly.”

Fine provided expert analysis as well for New Mexico legislators, offering insight on the local impact of world oil and gas prices, said former Democratic state Sen. John Sapien.

“His analysis was always right on the money,” Sapien told the Journal. “He opened our eyes to how fragile the state budget is based on oil and gas.”

But while Fine’s local influence is broadly recognized, his national impact is less known, largely reflecting the scholar’s humble manner.

“He led an incredible life, but he was very modest,” son William Fine told the Journal. “He didn’t go around telling people about all the things he did.”

Born in Newark, New Jersey, Fine lived most of his life on the East Coast.

As a young man, he fought in the civil rights movement, organizing protest events in southern states, first as a doctoral student in political science at the University of Florida, and then as a professor there.

“He organized black Freedom Riders in Florida,” William said. “He and my mom frequently demonstrated and were jailed. At one point, the KKK threatened to kill him.”

Fine knew both Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X.

“He met and coordinated with them,” William said.

He also had a passion for African studies, which he taught for years. In fact, he took his family — including William, wife Helen, and daughter Sharon — to Kenya for two years in the 1970s under a Ford Foundation research grant.

But 1975 marked a sharp turning point for Fine. He refocused on energy issues and geopolitics following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ world oil embargo.

Fine remained in academia as an MIT research associate. But he started working directly with industry and government, providing expert advice and guidance to public and private leaders and agencies.

He co-edited a landmark 1980 book — “The Resource War in 3-D: Dependency, Diplomacy, Defense” — that included insight from national experts on U.S. dependency on imported natural resources. It had a significant impact on public thought and policy under former President Ronald Reagan, leading to congressional testimony by Fine, and sought-after advice from senior policy advisers in government and Washington think tanks.

He also had private sit downs with former presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, according to William.

In addition, he advised on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union, having traveled to Russia more than 30 times. And he was a frequent contributor to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Washington Times, among other publications.

“He did a lot of things for this country at high levels of government, but he always maintained a low profile,” William said. “Some of the stuff he did was top secret during the Cold War.”

Apart from his son and daughter, William and Sharon, Fine is survived by younger brother Jim, 83. Fine’s wife, Helen, died of cancer on March 1, 2022.

The full article in the Albuquerque Journal is here-> https://www.abqjournal.com/2544351/internationally-renowned-energy-expert-dies.html

Blow to Putin: How Natural Gas/oil from America to Europe for the next 25 years puts off Third world war, leads to final negotiations : Leading expert on Russia Dr. Daniel Fine on the Geopolitics of the Russian War with the west.


Watch Dr. Fine’s presentation here in ENERGY MARKETS OUTLOOK-> https://youtu.be/Mo4qjIJTZEc

Invitation to the Non-Government Helium Conference Albuquerque December 1: US National Security and the NAVAJO NATION


TO RSVP AND SEE THE CONFERENCE AGENDA USE THIS LINK -> https://www.nmt.edu/research/research_helium_conference.php

Balloon Museum

9201 Balloon Museum Dr. NE Albuquerque, NM 87113News November 15, 2021       

*General Electric Health has joined the Conference as a panelist   To request to attend click here!   

TimeSessionSpeaker
9:00  AM              Introductions 
9:15 AMHelium Stockpile Sam BurtonDirector U.S. Bureau of Land Managment, Helium Program and Stockpile
10:05 AMPhysicist  Moses Chan PhysicistPennsylvania State University
10:40 AMLinde Matthew ThomasProcessor and MarketLinde
11:00 AMTrident Airships J. Mark LambrightChairmanTrident Airships
11:30 AMNavajo Oil and Gas for the Navajo Nation Navajo Nation 
12:10 PMLunchSponsored by: Navajo Oil & Gas and Linde 
1:10 PMGuided Tour of the Balloon Museum ManagerBalloon Museum

Content: Geology and ExplorationUses and Science U.S. Government Stockpile and Policy in Market:  History and ClosureExtraction and ProcessingMarket with new International sources and competitionSpecial Reference to Semi-Conductors and Medical TechnologyHelium Airships Revival:  Freight and TourismDefense Interests and ProvisionNavajo Oil and Gas Company for Navajo Nation:  A New ChallengeFuture of Helium supply in the U.S.


Dr. Dan Fine and T. Greg Merrion – The Energy Outlook Presentation – Video

Last week 4CED hosted energy thought leader Dr. Dan Fine who spoke on the topic of the future energy outlook under the Biden administration and implications for San Juan County. If you missed it, the meeting was recorded and is posted to the 4CED website.

Watch it here-> https://www.screencast.com/t/ge0EUXjjgqPa


Dr. Daniel Fine & T. Greg Merrion on oil price war, opec, natural gas, next steps?

Oil & Gas in context: A must see Radio Interview with oil and gas expert Dr. Daniel Fine & oil/Gas producer T. Greg Merrion

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico


The Heritage Foundation Background Paper

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico

July 1, 2019 22 min read Download Report

Authors: Dr. Daniel Fine, Ph.D and Nicolas Loris

 

SUMMARY

Increased energy trade has important economic and strategic significance for the United States and Mexico. Mexico’s energy-market reforms that opened access and improved natural gas trade between American producers and Mexican consumers have been beneficial for citizens in both countries. President López Obrador’s desire to return to energy nationalism threatens those gains. Both the U.S. and Mexico should commit to policies and regulations that continue to open access to markets, improve transparency, and expand opportunities for investment. Doing so will benefit both Americans and Mexicans.

Analysis: Oil market glut will lead to declining prices through 2020 by Dr. Daniel Fine


The Full article  in the Farmington Daily Times Energy Magazine (USA TODAY)

With the OPEC-Russia meeting ahead, the price of oil is at a crossroad.

President Trump wants lower prices for gasoline at the pump and the Democratic Party wants a shortage to lift prices higher. This is the 2020 presidential election, to re-elect Trump or a create a Democratic left-center White House.

Is OPEC-Russia ready to sustain output cutbacks for $70 Brent Oil or continue revenue maximum against market share? Curiously, in the conversation at Vienna the Oxy purchase of Anadarko will resonate. Why? Oxy must now increase its export of oil to lower its debt (Warren Buffet and more) and prevent a serious management miscalculation of paying too much for Anadarko.

Permian Delaware shale, with new high volume pipelines completed soon, must find expanding import markets of l.5 million barrels of oil per day or the equivalent of OPEC-Russia resuming late 2016 output for export.

As this writer concludes this column for the The Farmington Daily Times’ Energy Magazine, which Is going on hiatus in San Juan County after this edition, there is no change in an outlook that dates back to the oil price crash of 2014-2016.

There is too much oil (over-supply) against world demand for it.

Exxon-XTO in the Permian is prepared for $40 per barrel, and to still add  $82 billion value in the New Mexican Permian or the Delaware in the next 40 years.

However, along with Chevron, Oxy,  EOG and Pioneer, it must have a market for the economic recovery of reserves estimated at nearly 47 billion barrels in the Permian Delaware Basin. They must export against OPEC-Russia production.

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The lifting cost of Saudi Aramco oil remains lower than Permian Shale. Saudi Aramco has sold debt (bonds) and 63% of its cash flow goes to its government? With oil demand slack and sluggish, and electric vehicles preparing for a 2024 market challenge both technically and politically (zero emissions).

While associated natural gas has partially become a free commodity from Permian Delaware producers, natural gas is up next, after coal, as a target for Green Energy. It should resemble oil on a smaller scale as price dependent entirely on exports in the form of LNG.

Will Persian Gulf, Australian, and Russian natural gas production roll backward in favor of American LNG? American exporters today cannot compete in a $5 per ton Asian LNG market.

Some San Juan Basin producers at the recent San Juan Basin Energy Conference openly discussed shifting capital spending

from natural gas to oil development.

This writer reaffirms his $50 average price for WTI oil in 2019 presented for the smaller independent producers at a briefing at Merrion Oil last December, but beginning early in 2020 forecasts a second half average of $38 per barrel .

In New Mexico, the Governor can adjust the Energy Transition Act basic law next February, but it should be a petroleum-revenue 30 day session without serious oil and gas organized opposition.

New Mexico is now a hybrid Green State with more exportable oil and gas than every OPEC country except Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and yet it will impose the most effective rules for methane capture.

No amount of ad hominem distraction against its policy and leadership will change this direction, and the nation could follow with the outcome of the national election next year.

Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy. The opinions expressed are his own.”

 

Analysis: Electric cars and the Permian: Saudi Arabia in Lee County by Dr. Daniel Fine


The complete article

“Some 30,000 children marched in Belgium weeks ago against Climate Change. It is only a matter of two years before a few members of Congress, alone with only cameras today, will march at the head of crowds of 500,000 down Pennsylvania Avenue.

It will have its colors; green  — and yellow for the French — as 2020 arrives.

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham placed the state in the march which calls for America to join the Paris Agreement on climate change when she joined the U.S. Climate Alliance. But is it all for Green Energy without technology?

So far there is nothing on the road that eliminates carbon. The Green Deal is loaded: it offers “Green Energy” with diversionary political baggage.

Is it around the corner? It is. In six years, Audi-Porsche-VW will have an electric car on I-25 that will be zero-emissions, cost $27,000 (today’s dollar) with a range that beats Tesla.

Too soon to shake heads negatively. The surprise is a mass electric car with a German engineering in a Ford. Indeed, Ford will no doubt bid for the license is this writer’s forecast.

The revolutionary change is green energy and colorless technology. The kids in Belgium would be getting drivers licenses by then. What happens to I-25 or 550?”

Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has lessened potential for war


A must read! -> 2/11/2019 Hobbs News Sun | Sunday, February 10, 2019 | 7
Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has
lessened potential for war
CURTIS C. WYNNE NEWS-SUN

County ranks third in the nation in oil production.

Lea and Eddy counties have made history by reducing the possibility of a

Middle Eastern war for oil, according to Daniel Fine, a research and

development energy expert at New Mexico Tech.

Why? Because oil and gas production eliminates this nation’s need to rely on

the Middle East for fossil fuel.

Having served in developing former Gov. Susana Martinez’s energy policy and

in the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, Fine said he’s

currently writing an energy paper for a Washington, D.C. think tank.

“What has happened now, with President Trump’s policies and the

(Department of) Interior policies under (David) Bernhardt, is the chance of the

United States getting into a Middle East war to protect its interests in oil supply

and imports has evaporated, finished,” Fine said.

He dated the potential for war in the Middle East over oil as early as the 1970s.

“We have almost 50 years of tension and potential military participation in the

Middle East to provide us with imported oil from there,” Fine said. “The two

counties in New Mexico have eliminated this and have now played an important

role in peacemaking…” See the link below->

Hobbs News Sun _ Sunday, February 10, 2019 _ 7