Dr. DANIEL FINE’s OBITUARY Washington Post 11/13/22

The Washington Post Obituary is here as it appeared in print-> https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/washingtonpost/name/daniel-fine-obituary?id=37376417

FINE 

DR. DANIEL FINE 

Dr. Daniel Fine unexpectantly passed away Monday, September 26, 2022, at Aventura Hospital, Aventura Florida. Dan Fine was a great American patriot. Our nation lost a real hero at 88. 

Daniel Fine predicted the end of nations. He predicted the Fall of the Soviet Union in the cold war in his seminal work Resource War in 3-D. This was a major assessment in the raw materials sector of U.S. national security and foreign policy. He redefined the Cold War. In a meeting with William De Clerk, then President of South Africa, Dr. Fine predicted that apartheid would fall. Dr. Fine helped win as well from the Yeltsin Government the contract for the second largest copper mine in the world, Udokan. Three American Presidents got to know Dr. Fine, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and Joe Biden. Through interviews, tours of MIT, and campaign stops. He knew President Reagan in briefings and many of his administrative offices. 

Daniel Irwin Fine came into the world on Tuesday, June 12, 1934, in New Jersey. The firstborn son of Bill and Eve Fine. He would see his future wife, Helen Fine, at nine years of age in a movie in Hudson NY. Not knowing her yet, as the most beautiful blonde girl in the movie. She became his wife for 65 years of marriage and the love of his life. Helen Fine passed away from Cancer on March 1, 2022. Daniel Fine was a proud soldier in the Army during the Korean Conflict. He used the GI Bill to pay for his college. 

Returning to America, he attended Georgetown University. He was a Gold Key candidate and top of his class. His first degree was in Foreign Service. 

He went on to the University of Florida to get his Ph.D. under the legendary Manning J. Dauer to study and teach political science. Dr. Fine became a pioneer in African studies and furthered greatly the civil rights movement in the south. Professor Clem Cottingham was a lifetime friend and leader in the civil rights movement. Professor Cottingham invited Daniel and the whole Fine family to write a study on African politics for the Ford Foundation while living in Nairobi, Kenya. 

At Harvard University, he was honored by the University as a lifelong Harvard Fellow. At MIT he led the Mining and Minerals Resources Institute with Professor John Elliot and later Professor John Sadoway to create new educational/business technology ventures. While at MIT he published in the International Outlook of Busines Week. He wrote exclusively for the Washington Times; Midland Reporter Telegram, Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Farmington Daily Times. He spoke at Tuft’s Fletcher School for Law and Diplomacy many times and had a room reserved in his honor. Daniel Fine authored, lastly, the state of New Mexico Energy Policy in effect today. Dan Fine’s actions transcended the times. He was sui generis. One of a kind. At the last, he heard the music of Wagner’s Rienzi 

“The Golden orb your heart impressed.” Services previously held.

Published by The Washington Post on Nov. 13, 2022.

Internationally renowned energy expert dies (Dr. Daniel Fine)

BY KEVIN ROBINSON-AVILA / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER  
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28TH, 2022 AT 4:51PM

As an internationally renowned scholar and expert on energy markets and geopolitics, Daniel Fine helped shape the thoughts and decisions of policy makers and industry leaders over decades in Washington, D.C., and in New Mexico.

A lifelong Harvard fellow and research associate with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Fine had a direct influence on government affairs, frequently providing expert guidance on energy issues and international relations among the top echelons of public and private agencies.

And, for nearly two decades, Fine devoted his attention to New Mexico through the Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, first as head of the university’s Center for Energy Policy, and then as a research associate who led conferences, projects and initiatives across the state.

Fine, 88, died in Miami on Sept. 26, following complications from surgery.

To those who knew him, Fine was a brilliant, outgoing scholar who dedicated his life to public service, readily sharing his knowledge and experience with everyone. But above all, he was always a true “gentleman,” said former New Mexico Tech President Dan Lopez.

“He was a prince of a man, always cordial and never intrusive,” Lopez told the Journal. “He was gentle, thoughtful, knowledgeable and very kind. I’ll miss him.”

Since 2004, when Fine moved to New Mexico with Helen, his wife of 65 years, the scholar left an indelible mark.

Fine helped coordinate a statewide initiative under former Gov. Susana Martinez to forge a new, strategic plan for energy development. He organized public meetings and conferences across the state to gather input on the potential for everything from oil and gas to solar and wind, analyzing opportunities, challenges and public policies that could assist local communities, said T. Greg Merrion of Merrion Oil and Gas in Farmington.

“He traveled around the state and met with all kinds of people from many different sectors,” Merrion said.

Daniel Fine at the Santa Fe Railyards. Fine, an internationally renowned scholar and energy expert, died Sept. 26, 2022. (Courtesy of William Fine)

He worked for years with local leaders in the state’s northwest region, helping to organize a San Juan Basin Energy Conference there. And he frequently presented to Four Corners Economic Development on energy issues and world affairs.

“He would talk about everything, from the war in Ukraine to oil and gas prices and elections,” Merrion said. “He was actually scheduled to speak in late September, but he died suddenly and very unexpectedly.”

Fine provided expert analysis as well for New Mexico legislators, offering insight on the local impact of world oil and gas prices, said former Democratic state Sen. John Sapien.

“His analysis was always right on the money,” Sapien told the Journal. “He opened our eyes to how fragile the state budget is based on oil and gas.”

But while Fine’s local influence is broadly recognized, his national impact is less known, largely reflecting the scholar’s humble manner.

“He led an incredible life, but he was very modest,” son William Fine told the Journal. “He didn’t go around telling people about all the things he did.”

Born in Newark, New Jersey, Fine lived most of his life on the East Coast.

As a young man, he fought in the civil rights movement, organizing protest events in southern states, first as a doctoral student in political science at the University of Florida, and then as a professor there.

“He organized black Freedom Riders in Florida,” William said. “He and my mom frequently demonstrated and were jailed. At one point, the KKK threatened to kill him.”

Fine knew both Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X.

“He met and coordinated with them,” William said.

He also had a passion for African studies, which he taught for years. In fact, he took his family — including William, wife Helen, and daughter Sharon — to Kenya for two years in the 1970s under a Ford Foundation research grant.

But 1975 marked a sharp turning point for Fine. He refocused on energy issues and geopolitics following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ world oil embargo.

Fine remained in academia as an MIT research associate. But he started working directly with industry and government, providing expert advice and guidance to public and private leaders and agencies.

He co-edited a landmark 1980 book — “The Resource War in 3-D: Dependency, Diplomacy, Defense” — that included insight from national experts on U.S. dependency on imported natural resources. It had a significant impact on public thought and policy under former President Ronald Reagan, leading to congressional testimony by Fine, and sought-after advice from senior policy advisers in government and Washington think tanks.

He also had private sit downs with former presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, according to William.

In addition, he advised on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union, having traveled to Russia more than 30 times. And he was a frequent contributor to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Washington Times, among other publications.

“He did a lot of things for this country at high levels of government, but he always maintained a low profile,” William said. “Some of the stuff he did was top secret during the Cold War.”

Apart from his son and daughter, William and Sharon, Fine is survived by younger brother Jim, 83. Fine’s wife, Helen, died of cancer on March 1, 2022.

The full article in the Albuquerque Journal is here-> https://www.abqjournal.com/2544351/internationally-renowned-energy-expert-dies.html

Blow to Putin: How Natural Gas/oil from America to Europe for the next 25 years puts off Third world war, leads to final negotiations : Leading expert on Russia Dr. Daniel Fine on the Geopolitics of the Russian War with the west.

Watch Dr. Fine’s presentation here in ENERGY MARKETS OUTLOOK-> https://youtu.be/Mo4qjIJTZEc

Invitation to the Non-Government Helium Conference Albuquerque December 1: US National Security and the NAVAJO NATION

TO RSVP AND SEE THE CONFERENCE AGENDA USE THIS LINK -> https://www.nmt.edu/research/research_helium_conference.php

Balloon Museum

9201 Balloon Museum Dr. NE Albuquerque, NM 87113News November 15, 2021       

*General Electric Health has joined the Conference as a panelist   To request to attend click here!   

Time	Session	Speaker
9:00  AM	Introductions
9:15 AM	Helium Stockpile	Sam BurtonDirector U.S. Bureau of Land Managment, Helium Program and Stockpile
10:05 AM	Physicist	Moses Chan PhysicistPennsylvania State University
10:40 AM	Linde	Matthew ThomasProcessor and MarketLinde
11:00 AM	Trident Airships	J. Mark LambrightChairmanTrident Airships
11:30 AM	Navajo Oil and Gas for the Navajo Nation	Navajo Nation
12:10 PM	LunchSponsored by: Navajo Oil & Gas and Linde
1:10 PM	Guided Tour of the Balloon Museum	ManagerBalloon Museum

Content: Geology and ExplorationUses and Science U.S. Government Stockpile and Policy in Market:  History and ClosureExtraction and ProcessingMarket with new International sources and competitionSpecial Reference to Semi-Conductors and Medical TechnologyHelium Airships Revival:  Freight and TourismDefense Interests and ProvisionNavajo Oil and Gas Company for Navajo Nation:  A New ChallengeFuture of Helium supply in the U.S.

Oil & Gas in context: A must see Radio Interview with oil and gas expert Dr. Daniel Fine & oil/Gas producer T. Greg Merrion

Dr. Daniel Fine & T. Greg Merrion on oil price war, opec, natural gas, next steps?

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico

The Heritage Foundation Background Paper

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico

July 1, 2019 22 min read Download Report

Authors: Dr. Daniel Fine, Ph.D and Nicolas Loris

 

SUMMARY

Increased energy trade has important economic and strategic significance for the United States and Mexico. Mexico’s energy-market reforms that opened access and improved natural gas trade between American producers and Mexican consumers have been beneficial for citizens in both countries. President López Obrador’s desire to return to energy nationalism threatens those gains. Both the U.S. and Mexico should commit to policies and regulations that continue to open access to markets, improve transparency, and expand opportunities for investment. Doing so will benefit both Americans and Mexicans.

Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has lessened potential for war

A must read! -> 2/11/2019 Hobbs News Sun | Sunday, February 10, 2019 | 7
Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has
lessened potential for war
CURTIS C. WYNNE NEWS-SUN

County ranks third in the nation in oil production.

Lea and Eddy counties have made history by reducing the possibility of a

Middle Eastern war for oil, according to Daniel Fine, a research and

development energy expert at New Mexico Tech.

Why? Because oil and gas production eliminates this nation’s need to rely on

the Middle East for fossil fuel.

Having served in developing former Gov. Susana Martinez’s energy policy and

in the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, Fine said he’s

currently writing an energy paper for a Washington, D.C. think tank.

“What has happened now, with President Trump’s policies and the

(Department of) Interior policies under (David) Bernhardt, is the chance of the

United States getting into a Middle East war to protect its interests in oil supply

and imports has evaporated, finished,” Fine said.

He dated the potential for war in the Middle East over oil as early as the 1970s.

“We have almost 50 years of tension and potential military participation in the

Middle East to provide us with imported oil from there,” Fine said. “The two

counties in New Mexico have eliminated this and have now played an important

role in peacemaking…” See the link below->

Hobbs News Sun _ Sunday, February 10, 2019 _ 7

Analysis: Things are flat in the Permian, and there’s a push for renewables in Santa Fe by Dr. Daniel Fine

 

The article by Dr. Daniel Fine is here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/ The Permian-Delaware Basin rig count should start falling as oil operators, large and small, are flat for 2019.

Spending has been sharply reduced as supply now dominates the A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) used by many commodity traders in oil.

The large or integrated oil companies have all the rigs of 2018 in place for 2019. This would make October the price peak of the latest boom or recovery in oil. Permian-Delaware Basin production would decline at least 500,000 barrels in 2019 to offset the supply glut and stabilize at $50 per barrel.

OPEC members, notably Saudi Arabia, need a fiscal price of oil of $85 per barrel to pay for government and social spending. But at $60 per barrel, cash flow will not make it.

Its new public relations-lobbying in the U.S will require Sovereign Wealth Fund borrowing at market rates, which will be higher mainly because of U.S Senate sanctions over the murder of a Saudi journalist writing for the Washington Post.

https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-31/html/container.html

This writer forecast a 2019 $50 per barrel average price of oil when prices fell to $43.00 last month.

At the same time, many small and independent producers have break-even at $50 with high-interest debt!

There are Chapter 11 bankruptcies valued at $140 billion from the Panhandle in Texas to the San Juan Basin that resulted from the OPEC -Saudi Arabian price and market share war of 2014-2016 against Southwestern small/independent shale and tight sands producers who now want reparations or damages.

This could hold up financial public relations as state courts hear from local energy banks and their Chapter 11 or equivalent clients.

Saudi Aramco is looking at American LNG investment in the Gulf Coast.
But that would compete against Russian Gazprom export pipeline gas to the European market.

This would confront Russia with Saudi Arabian conflict and threaten Russian-Saudi Arabian accord in OPEC.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico has announced a target of 50 percent renewable energy in 10 years. Electricity rate payers would bear the cost. She also placed New Mexico in the Climate Change Treaty Camp. However, if the Democratic Party wins the White House in 2020 there is no doubt that Washington will follow Santa Fe and our new governor.

In the meantime, the new Secretary of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources, Sarah Cottrell Probst, is a world expert in carbon tax architecture to mitigate global warming.
And there could be trade-offs with the super-majors in the Permian-Delaware basins.
The new Administration is expected to create a new energy policy that will replace the effort of ex- Governor Martinez. One issue that did not appear in 2015 was well-density.

The current company-state conflict centers around increased density because of down-spacing in the sub-surface. The opposition is beyond this specific technical capability: it is about more production of oil and carbon in relation to climate change.
What happens in New Mexico will have an impact on regulations in other states and, later, in national energy policy.

This column is an independent analysis by Dr. Daniel Fine, who is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.

Reactions to Delaware Basin news shows misunderstanding of petroleum economics by Dr. Daniel Fine

The article is here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/

News of the size of oil reserves in the Delaware Basin (New Mexico’s share of the Permian) while OPEC was deciding how many barrels it will cut from the world market to lift prices caused epic confusion – and revelations of how little “authorities” and the media understand petroleum economics.

The New Mexico media, which relies mainly on interviews with petroleum industry spokespersons, got it wrong.

Government numbers came out as 46 billion barrels (Permian total) with 26 in New Mexico. This means nothing but oil in good rock along with technical recovery as an estimate. Some excited “authorities,” who should know better, exclaimed that there was more.

However, the estimate is based on the application of technical means to recover the oil. The reserves of real oil depend on ultimate economic recovery. This means technical based on geology, plus economics. A high price will recover the billions of barrels while a low price will not.

In short, the numbers reflect the rocks without economics.

The Delaware reserves plus the Texas Permian are now there to expand supply over 12 million b/d in the United States.

https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-31/html/container.html

This writer has warned that world oil demand is sluggish and imprecise with only references to legacy guesswork that the developing world plus China demand will support prices long term or forever. Yet, world oil consumption has increased only 5 percent in the last 10 years.

OPEC, with Saudi Arabia as its leader, has expired as the world administrator of the price of crude oil. At its December meeting in Austria, Qatar quit after nearly 70 years and announced concentration in LNG production and world export as the existing market leader.

OPEC emerged with a serious factional split between OPEC original and OPEC with Russia. There would have been no agreement without Russia and its old Russian Federation members as producers. Moscow is the new world oil price-setter indirectly while OPEC Original becomes a collaborator in cartel for now. Simply put, Saudi Arabia no longer is the “residual supplier” alone.

The production roll-back of 1.2 barrels per day by both “OPEC” is not enough for “balance” supply and demand for world crude oil.  It is being tested daily by commodity traders. In a briefing to New Mexico independent and small producers before the meeting in Austria, this writer warned that 1.7 million b/d was needed for balancing stabilization. Without that size of a production and export reduction, the average price of WTI oil in 2019 will average $50 per barrel.

Nearing 12 million b/d and over the Permian producers voluntarily will be required by this price to revise capital spending and place production into DUC (non-completions) and storage. There is doubt that the export of tight or shale oil would continue if the Brent price falls lower and loses its premium over WTI. A net cutback of Permian between 500,000 to 750,00 b/d should be a non-OPEC response to an oil glut even more serious than 2014.

Saudi Arabia is untouched as an American strategic ally in confronting Iran in the Middle East as a hegemonic threat.

Despite some Republicans and the Democratic Party in Congress, violation of human rights over the death of a Saudi journalist and critic of the Crown Prince will not override U.S. national interests in the Middle East.

President Trump has not deviated from post—World War Two foreign and defense policy.

Trump wants low oil prices for American consumers and forced OPEC this summer to pump more to offset export sanctions on Iran.

Still, with OPEC under a deep division which no President could achieve since 1973, Trump as a geopolitical manager of world oil has removed about 500,000 b/d between January and December of 2018. America, via Trump and without a formal cartel alignment, determines much of the price of world oil.

The United States and its Southwest tight and shale oil has changed from dependence on world oil to domination. Never again can OPEC engage the U.S. in a price and market share war as it did in 2014-2016 through supply acceleration in an oversupplied world market.

WTI emerges as the new world price. It is American barrels that set the price and OPEC is a price-taker. Since there are nearly 50 billion barrels in reserve in New Mexico, how will the Permian producers set a return on investment in a free market for petroleum?

Dr. Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.

Dr. Daniel Fine: Trump and oil in trade geopolitics

The full article is here-> Full Article by Dr. Fine

“Unlike 1973, and its oil embargo against the United States, there is no supply threat from the Middle East. Consequently, only a demand unknown moves the price of crude oil. Permian/Delaware has displaced the Middle East as a source and even Mexico imports U.S. production.

This has caused euphoria in Santa Fe among lobbyists who prepare for a new Governor from the Democratic Party.

She will have to decide that the rhetoric of renewable energy is no match for her budget bounty made up of revenue flows from Lea and Eddy Counties. Token demonstrations for higher taxes from oil and gas producers no doubt will occur, but in Santa Fe only the price of oil is the threat that can take the punch off the table.

And here the connected experts publicly answer reporters that the Permian is an exceptionalism in oil and gas: it will never become a basin in a downturn.

However, all the charts and slides converge on upward supply without much on demand to offset the upward slope. It is almost impolite to ask where is the market for the massive supply of oil now and in the near-term future?  What about demand for oil?
China? Not quite as electric cars – yes, Tesla or Chinese versions appear as I-Phone-like technology against the combustion engine.

California, with 40 million people and seven states following its waiver, can set miles per gallon requirements on engines towards zero emissions.

This is the meaning of President Trump’s policy to force California back into the Union where Washington decides on what the combustion engine can and will do.

This a decisive battle over Climate Change and the “Resist” (Trump) movement of the Democratic Party.

After all, it is California which pledged to support the Paris Climate Change Treaty which Trump opposed.”