Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

Posts tagged ‘Democrats’

Internationally renowned energy expert dies (Dr. Daniel Fine)


BY KEVIN ROBINSON-AVILA / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER  
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28TH, 2022 AT 4:51PM

As an internationally renowned scholar and expert on energy markets and geopolitics, Daniel Fine helped shape the thoughts and decisions of policy makers and industry leaders over decades in Washington, D.C., and in New Mexico.

A lifelong Harvard fellow and research associate with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Fine had a direct influence on government affairs, frequently providing expert guidance on energy issues and international relations among the top echelons of public and private agencies.

And, for nearly two decades, Fine devoted his attention to New Mexico through the Institute of Mining and Technology in Socorro, first as head of the university’s Center for Energy Policy, and then as a research associate who led conferences, projects and initiatives across the state.

Fine, 88, died in Miami on Sept. 26, following complications from surgery.

To those who knew him, Fine was a brilliant, outgoing scholar who dedicated his life to public service, readily sharing his knowledge and experience with everyone. But above all, he was always a true “gentleman,” said former New Mexico Tech President Dan Lopez.

“He was a prince of a man, always cordial and never intrusive,” Lopez told the Journal. “He was gentle, thoughtful, knowledgeable and very kind. I’ll miss him.”

Since 2004, when Fine moved to New Mexico with Helen, his wife of 65 years, the scholar left an indelible mark.

Fine helped coordinate a statewide initiative under former Gov. Susana Martinez to forge a new, strategic plan for energy development. He organized public meetings and conferences across the state to gather input on the potential for everything from oil and gas to solar and wind, analyzing opportunities, challenges and public policies that could assist local communities, said T. Greg Merrion of Merrion Oil and Gas in Farmington.

“He traveled around the state and met with all kinds of people from many different sectors,” Merrion said.

Daniel Fine at the Santa Fe Railyards. Fine, an internationally renowned scholar and energy expert, died Sept. 26, 2022. (Courtesy of William Fine)

He worked for years with local leaders in the state’s northwest region, helping to organize a San Juan Basin Energy Conference there. And he frequently presented to Four Corners Economic Development on energy issues and world affairs.

“He would talk about everything, from the war in Ukraine to oil and gas prices and elections,” Merrion said. “He was actually scheduled to speak in late September, but he died suddenly and very unexpectedly.”

Fine provided expert analysis as well for New Mexico legislators, offering insight on the local impact of world oil and gas prices, said former Democratic state Sen. John Sapien.

“His analysis was always right on the money,” Sapien told the Journal. “He opened our eyes to how fragile the state budget is based on oil and gas.”

But while Fine’s local influence is broadly recognized, his national impact is less known, largely reflecting the scholar’s humble manner.

“He led an incredible life, but he was very modest,” son William Fine told the Journal. “He didn’t go around telling people about all the things he did.”

Born in Newark, New Jersey, Fine lived most of his life on the East Coast.

As a young man, he fought in the civil rights movement, organizing protest events in southern states, first as a doctoral student in political science at the University of Florida, and then as a professor there.

“He organized black Freedom Riders in Florida,” William said. “He and my mom frequently demonstrated and were jailed. At one point, the KKK threatened to kill him.”

Fine knew both Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X.

“He met and coordinated with them,” William said.

He also had a passion for African studies, which he taught for years. In fact, he took his family — including William, wife Helen, and daughter Sharon — to Kenya for two years in the 1970s under a Ford Foundation research grant.

But 1975 marked a sharp turning point for Fine. He refocused on energy issues and geopolitics following the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ world oil embargo.

Fine remained in academia as an MIT research associate. But he started working directly with industry and government, providing expert advice and guidance to public and private leaders and agencies.

He co-edited a landmark 1980 book — “The Resource War in 3-D: Dependency, Diplomacy, Defense” — that included insight from national experts on U.S. dependency on imported natural resources. It had a significant impact on public thought and policy under former President Ronald Reagan, leading to congressional testimony by Fine, and sought-after advice from senior policy advisers in government and Washington think tanks.

He also had private sit downs with former presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, according to William.

In addition, he advised on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union, having traveled to Russia more than 30 times. And he was a frequent contributor to Business Week, the Engineering and Mining Journal, and the Washington Times, among other publications.

“He did a lot of things for this country at high levels of government, but he always maintained a low profile,” William said. “Some of the stuff he did was top secret during the Cold War.”

Apart from his son and daughter, William and Sharon, Fine is survived by younger brother Jim, 83. Fine’s wife, Helen, died of cancer on March 1, 2022.

The full article in the Albuquerque Journal is here-> https://www.abqjournal.com/2544351/internationally-renowned-energy-expert-dies.html


Dr. Dan Fine and T. Greg Merrion – The Energy Outlook Presentation – Video

Last week 4CED hosted energy thought leader Dr. Dan Fine who spoke on the topic of the future energy outlook under the Biden administration and implications for San Juan County. If you missed it, the meeting was recorded and is posted to the 4CED website.

Watch it here-> https://www.screencast.com/t/ge0EUXjjgqPa

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico


The Heritage Foundation Background Paper

Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico

July 1, 2019 22 min read Download Report

Authors: Dr. Daniel Fine, Ph.D and Nicolas Loris

 

SUMMARY

Increased energy trade has important economic and strategic significance for the United States and Mexico. Mexico’s energy-market reforms that opened access and improved natural gas trade between American producers and Mexican consumers have been beneficial for citizens in both countries. President López Obrador’s desire to return to energy nationalism threatens those gains. Both the U.S. and Mexico should commit to policies and regulations that continue to open access to markets, improve transparency, and expand opportunities for investment. Doing so will benefit both Americans and Mexicans.

Analysis: Oil market glut will lead to declining prices through 2020 by Dr. Daniel Fine


The Full article  in the Farmington Daily Times Energy Magazine (USA TODAY)

With the OPEC-Russia meeting ahead, the price of oil is at a crossroad.

President Trump wants lower prices for gasoline at the pump and the Democratic Party wants a shortage to lift prices higher. This is the 2020 presidential election, to re-elect Trump or a create a Democratic left-center White House.

Is OPEC-Russia ready to sustain output cutbacks for $70 Brent Oil or continue revenue maximum against market share? Curiously, in the conversation at Vienna the Oxy purchase of Anadarko will resonate. Why? Oxy must now increase its export of oil to lower its debt (Warren Buffet and more) and prevent a serious management miscalculation of paying too much for Anadarko.

Permian Delaware shale, with new high volume pipelines completed soon, must find expanding import markets of l.5 million barrels of oil per day or the equivalent of OPEC-Russia resuming late 2016 output for export.

As this writer concludes this column for the The Farmington Daily Times’ Energy Magazine, which Is going on hiatus in San Juan County after this edition, there is no change in an outlook that dates back to the oil price crash of 2014-2016.

There is too much oil (over-supply) against world demand for it.

Exxon-XTO in the Permian is prepared for $40 per barrel, and to still add  $82 billion value in the New Mexican Permian or the Delaware in the next 40 years.

However, along with Chevron, Oxy,  EOG and Pioneer, it must have a market for the economic recovery of reserves estimated at nearly 47 billion barrels in the Permian Delaware Basin. They must export against OPEC-Russia production.

ADVERTISING

The lifting cost of Saudi Aramco oil remains lower than Permian Shale. Saudi Aramco has sold debt (bonds) and 63% of its cash flow goes to its government? With oil demand slack and sluggish, and electric vehicles preparing for a 2024 market challenge both technically and politically (zero emissions).

While associated natural gas has partially become a free commodity from Permian Delaware producers, natural gas is up next, after coal, as a target for Green Energy. It should resemble oil on a smaller scale as price dependent entirely on exports in the form of LNG.

Will Persian Gulf, Australian, and Russian natural gas production roll backward in favor of American LNG? American exporters today cannot compete in a $5 per ton Asian LNG market.

Some San Juan Basin producers at the recent San Juan Basin Energy Conference openly discussed shifting capital spending

from natural gas to oil development.

This writer reaffirms his $50 average price for WTI oil in 2019 presented for the smaller independent producers at a briefing at Merrion Oil last December, but beginning early in 2020 forecasts a second half average of $38 per barrel .

In New Mexico, the Governor can adjust the Energy Transition Act basic law next February, but it should be a petroleum-revenue 30 day session without serious oil and gas organized opposition.

New Mexico is now a hybrid Green State with more exportable oil and gas than every OPEC country except Iraq and Saudi Arabia, and yet it will impose the most effective rules for methane capture.

No amount of ad hominem distraction against its policy and leadership will change this direction, and the nation could follow with the outcome of the national election next year.

Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy. The opinions expressed are his own.”

 

Energy Industry Looks To The Future At 2019 San Juan Basin Energy Conference A recent influx of dynamic, new oil and gas operators are bringing innovative applications of modern technology to restore the San Juan Basin to its place as a leading basin in the United States


 


NEWS PROVIDED BY

LOGOS RESOURCES LLC

Mar 15, 2019, 09:52 ET

The San Juan Basin Energy Conference was founded to provide a forum for exchange of ideas regarding the development of the abundant energy resources found in the region. The theme of this year’s conference is “Looking to the Future”. A recent influx of dynamic oil and gas operators, bringing innovative applications of modern technology to the Gallup sandstone and the Mancos shale formations, promises to restore the San Juan Basin to its place as one of leading basins in the United States.

Regional producers continue to leverage their experiences to apply industry-best practices in efficient implementation of the recently-surging development. The San Juan Basin Energy Conference 2019, sponsored in part by Hilcorp, Whiptail Midstream, and LOGOS Resources II, LLC brings together the basin’s top companies and industry experts to share views on the industry and discuss plans for the future within the San Juan Basin.

Tickets and sponsorship information are available at sanjuanbasin2019.com. Ticket prices are $250/person and sponsorship prices range from $1,000$10,000. Net proceeds will go to San Juan College’s research park, Four Corners Innovations, Inc.

FOUR CORNERS INNOVATIONS, INC.
DOLORES SILSETH
(505) 566-3402
SILSETHD@4CII.ORG

SOURCE LOGOS RESOURCES LLC

Related Links

http://www.logosresourcesllc.com

Analysis: Electric cars and the Permian: Saudi Arabia in Lee County by Dr. Daniel Fine


The complete article

“Some 30,000 children marched in Belgium weeks ago against Climate Change. It is only a matter of two years before a few members of Congress, alone with only cameras today, will march at the head of crowds of 500,000 down Pennsylvania Avenue.

It will have its colors; green  — and yellow for the French — as 2020 arrives.

New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan-Grisham placed the state in the march which calls for America to join the Paris Agreement on climate change when she joined the U.S. Climate Alliance. But is it all for Green Energy without technology?

So far there is nothing on the road that eliminates carbon. The Green Deal is loaded: it offers “Green Energy” with diversionary political baggage.

Is it around the corner? It is. In six years, Audi-Porsche-VW will have an electric car on I-25 that will be zero-emissions, cost $27,000 (today’s dollar) with a range that beats Tesla.

Too soon to shake heads negatively. The surprise is a mass electric car with a German engineering in a Ford. Indeed, Ford will no doubt bid for the license is this writer’s forecast.

The revolutionary change is green energy and colorless technology. The kids in Belgium would be getting drivers licenses by then. What happens to I-25 or 550?”

Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has lessened potential for war


A must read! -> 2/11/2019 Hobbs News Sun | Sunday, February 10, 2019 | 7
Energy expert: New Mexico oil production has
lessened potential for war
CURTIS C. WYNNE NEWS-SUN

County ranks third in the nation in oil production.

Lea and Eddy counties have made history by reducing the possibility of a

Middle Eastern war for oil, according to Daniel Fine, a research and

development energy expert at New Mexico Tech.

Why? Because oil and gas production eliminates this nation’s need to rely on

the Middle East for fossil fuel.

Having served in developing former Gov. Susana Martinez’s energy policy and

in the Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, Fine said he’s

currently writing an energy paper for a Washington, D.C. think tank.

“What has happened now, with President Trump’s policies and the

(Department of) Interior policies under (David) Bernhardt, is the chance of the

United States getting into a Middle East war to protect its interests in oil supply

and imports has evaporated, finished,” Fine said.

He dated the potential for war in the Middle East over oil as early as the 1970s.

“We have almost 50 years of tension and potential military participation in the

Middle East to provide us with imported oil from there,” Fine said. “The two

counties in New Mexico have eliminated this and have now played an important

role in peacemaking…” See the link below->

Hobbs News Sun _ Sunday, February 10, 2019 _ 7

Analysis: Things are flat in the Permian, and there’s a push for renewables in Santa Fe by Dr. Daniel Fine


 

The article by Dr. Daniel Fine is here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/ The Permian-Delaware Basin rig count should start falling as oil operators, large and small, are flat for 2019.

Spending has been sharply reduced as supply now dominates the A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) used by many commodity traders in oil.

The large or integrated oil companies have all the rigs of 2018 in place for 2019. This would make October the price peak of the latest boom or recovery in oil. Permian-Delaware Basin production would decline at least 500,000 barrels in 2019 to offset the supply glut and stabilize at $50 per barrel.

OPEC members, notably Saudi Arabia, need a fiscal price of oil of $85 per barrel to pay for government and social spending. But at $60 per barrel, cash flow will not make it.

Its new public relations-lobbying in the U.S will require Sovereign Wealth Fund borrowing at market rates, which will be higher mainly because of U.S Senate sanctions over the murder of a Saudi journalist writing for the Washington Post.

This writer forecast a 2019 $50 per barrel average price of oil when prices fell to $43.00 last month.

At the same time, many small and independent producers have break-even at $50 with high-interest debt!

There are Chapter 11 bankruptcies valued at $140 billion from the Panhandle in Texas to the San Juan Basin that resulted from the OPEC -Saudi Arabian price and market share war of 2014-2016 against Southwestern small/independent shale and tight sands producers who now want reparations or damages.

This could hold up financial public relations as state courts hear from local energy banks and their Chapter 11 or equivalent clients.

Saudi Aramco is looking at American LNG investment in the Gulf Coast.
But that would compete against Russian Gazprom export pipeline gas to the European market.

This would confront Russia with Saudi Arabian conflict and threaten Russian-Saudi Arabian accord in OPEC.

Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico has announced a target of 50 percent renewable energy in 10 years. Electricity rate payers would bear the cost. She also placed New Mexico in the Climate Change Treaty Camp. However, if the Democratic Party wins the White House in 2020 there is no doubt that Washington will follow Santa Fe and our new governor.

In the meantime, the new Secretary of Energy Minerals and Natural Resources, Sarah Cottrell Probst, is a world expert in carbon tax architecture to mitigate global warming.
And there could be trade-offs with the super-majors in the Permian-Delaware basins.
The new Administration is expected to create a new energy policy that will replace the effort of ex- Governor Martinez. One issue that did not appear in 2015 was well-density.

The current company-state conflict centers around increased density because of down-spacing in the sub-surface. The opposition is beyond this specific technical capability: it is about more production of oil and carbon in relation to climate change.
What happens in New Mexico will have an impact on regulations in other states and, later, in national energy policy.

This column is an independent analysis by Dr. Daniel Fine, who is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.

Analysis: Trump and Saudi collision on oil, and Bingaman’s return to Santa Fe by Dr. Daniel Fine


The whole article is here->https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/11/25/analysis-trump-and-saudi-collision-oil-bingamans-return-santa-fe/2015081002/

n an earlier column, readers overseas benefited from this writer’s forecast that crude oil prices would fall dramatically because most commodity traders got it wrong. Simply, this column’s analysis was the buying of oil assumed a shortage would result once the sanctions against Iran would be activated the first week of November.

President Trump wanted lower oil prices with OPEC and Saudi Arabia pumping more. Two weeks ago, a call from the Middle East confirmed readers of the column had followed the analysis in the Energy Magazine and sold Brent oil — and profited.

Oil has slumped under $60 as the delusion of a shortage vanished. In the November issue column, this writer made a call: the oil price would reach $50 as a low. There is no change in that forecast. The price in the commodity market for WTI crude would touch in the very high $40 range before the Saudi-led production cut-back is realized. Why? Again, too much capacity to produce too much oil for demand.

What’s the impact on SW oil?

Oil demand without commodity traders’ bets on the sanctions against Iranian oil production and export contradicts flagging demand. Some Southwest shale producers, faced with discounts on domestic sales, are exporting oil to world markets and capturing the higher Brent price or differential between the WTI priced Midland domestic and the Brent price for the World.

But this would shift Southwest tight oil into a world market where such supply also chases weaker demand. This switches U.S. oil into world oil as exports and diverts it from going into U.S. storage.

Unlike the last three price sell-offs Saudi Arabia, speaking for OPEC, is strangely silent on calling on non-OPEC producers join it in lowering production or “balancing” the

market.

Quite the opposite. Led by shale producers in the Delaware (New Mexico) Basin in the Permian complex, United State production approaches 12 million barrels per day, a historic high and number one position against the Middle East and Russia.

Only a serious price decline, short of the 2015 bottom, would signal oil non-completions. A cutback of U.S. production by 750,000 barrels per with an OPEC cutback independent of Russian production of around one million barrels will stabilize or balance the world oil market.

But U.S producers cannot (anti-trust) belong to a collective price-setting organization (cartel).

President Trump wants lower prices, even if this means a breakup of OPEC into two and a moderate production roll-back by Southwest producers – a negative cash flow for those without or less advantaged by Tier One wells.

The overwhelming Democratic Party electoral win influenced OPEC and Saudi Arabia to resist President Trump’s pressure for lower world oil prices because he is much weaker and easier to upend in oil supply and demand world “domination.”

Bingaman is back!

The Democratic Party indirectly dimmed the “blue flame” price outlook regardless of blue wave voting margins. But enough of “color revolutions” in politics or economics?

This writer is constructively reacting to the return of former Sen. Jeff Bingaman to New Mexico’s politics through new state Governor-elect Michelle Lujan Grisham. She asked him to head her transition team.

With Democratic Party factionalism into Progressive/Ultra-Progressive forces against the traditional Moderate/Conservatives, Sen. Bingaman’s experience and history in working with the late Senator Domenici in forging the U.S Energy Act of 2005 is in best interest of New Mexico.

Recall the energy policy of “all of the above” in the Bush and Obama Administrations coupled with the Energy Policy of outgoing Governor Susana Martinez was a compromise of give-and-take between two New Mexico Senators of different parties and energy policy objectives.

Dr. Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.

Dr. Daniel Fine: Oil – before and after the November election (USA TODAY Farmington Daily Times)


The article can be found here-> https://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2018/06/24/fine-oil-before-and-after-november-election/699460002/  The Trump Administration is moving towards less royalty rates on Federal land leases, less Bureau of Land Management discretion on Environmental Protection Act obstruction on the Application for Petroleum Drilling process, less coal and nuclear power generation decline, and less oil supply confidence in OPEC-Russia world price management.

This is the thrust of the signature world energy domination policy of Secretary Ryan Zinke for the last 16 months. It accounts for the action of OPEC-Russia 10 days ago. Saudi Arabia led OPEC to increase oil production to respond to President Donald Trump, but averted a price shock with gradualism. More output from OPEC offers increased revenue in the very short term.

It now faces an election to decide majority party control of Congress. Should the Democratic Party win at least in the House of Representatives, President Donald Trump will be set back on energy policy and its action realization. He will be forced to use executive power narrowly.

The Democratic Party will prepare for 2020 and the foreclosure of Trump-Zinke on world energy domination through an American petroleum system and public land dispensation.

What will the Democratic Party control of energy in Washington and Santa Fe look like?
Imported oil is consistent with a resumption of climate change energy policy which is less carbon in the economy and more renewables as the alternative.

World investment flows are putting solar and wind ahead of oil and gas for the first time. Electric cars are now one to every six in sales in California and soon in Europe, displacing diesel engines.

The Democratic Party in Washington in 2020 will no doubt align with the European Union in Climate Change with a roll-back of the Trump Administration regulatory reform.

Methane, public land access, a return of BLM dominance, along with tax and infrastructure incentives can be expected. Battery charging technology and its placement capacity expansion on the Interstates will promote the market for electric vehicles. New issues restricting unitization, spacing and density of oil and gas wells should appear on state and Federal land.

In Santa Fe, the current Martinez energy policy and plan (2015) would be rejected in favor of a new Democratic Governor’s choice to start over in 2019.  It should be like Colorado’s energy policy but with strong regulatory hydraulic fracturing intervention and fresh water use conservation emphasis.

The oil and gas industry concentration on the Delaware, Permian, Williston (along with the Bakken Formation), Eagle Ford basins along with the Marcellus in natural gas will double up at heavier entry cost and consolidation.

This process, however, promises San Juan Basin natural gas higher prices. New exploration and production on public land would be minimal and legally challenged.

New off-shore U.S oil would be closed with “national monument” type public law.
The Democratic Party has no conservative business Democratic faction to offset the impact on American oil and gas as an industry.

In New Mexico, county leaders from San Juan, Eddy and Lea will continue to argue on the basis of statewide revenue. The Democratic Party in Santa Fe must demonstrate economic development through diversity while oil and gas is politically isolated.

With Canadian imports and even Russian gas in Boston harbor in very cold and snow-storm winters, the East Coast can return to the way it was before Trump on foreign oil imports – America no longer “First.”

The West Coast without refineries and wired power from natural gas is already there in Democratic Party dominance and declining combustion engines.

Dr. Daniel Fine is the associate director of New Mexico Tech’s Center for Energy Policy and the State of New Mexico Natural Gas Export Coordinator. The opinions expressed are his own.