Analysis by the father of American Geopolitics Dr. Daniel Fine, MIT.

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Hedging threat and Venezuela Oil By Dr. Daniel Fine


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/08/27/hedging-threat-and-venezuela-oil/580510001/

“How can Saudi Arabia and OPEC behind them strike a second blow against shale oil producers in the Southwest? The first was the 2014-2017 price and market share war in which they raised production to put the higher cost Americans out of business.
This was partially abandoned at Algiers in a reversal to opt for a higher price for crude oil from $26 to the high $40 range. The marketing tool is lowering their production by 1,800,000 barrels per day.

The second blow is process.

The Saudi Arabian Oil Ministry and its state company, Saudi Aramco, negotiated in London with Glencore (world’s largest trading combined with mining), banks and hedge funds to see if they could reduce the liquidity necessary for American oil and gas shale producers to hedge forward to obtain a higher price.

Without access at only financial transactions costs to the “strip” or the forward price of oil at at least 10 percent higher than current prices “spot,” WPX and all the Permian-Delaware significant producers would not have survived the recent downturn in their current form.

If there is no difference between the price oil today and September 2018,  which is called the “contango,” this would be a problem of liquidity – no entity taking the other side against the oil and gas producer on a contract.  No cash would be bet against the oil and gas producer who sells forward one year. One side, for example, sells 70 percent of 2018 oil production at June 2018 prices in the present while the other side buys or covers, as the counterpart, the contract.

Saudi Arabia correctly followed data which demonstrated that despite the decline in the price of oil from $100 in 2014 to a low of $26 per barrel, oil producers hedged against the fall and largely survived.  Without hedging the producers would have negative cash flows and serious problems of debt to keep going.”

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Watch Energy Expert Dr. Daniel Fine As He Discusses President Trump’s New Policy Of “Energy Dominance”


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Overcapacity and the price of oil Dr. Daniel Fine, New Mexico Center for Energy Policy


The full article is here-> http://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2017/06/25/overcapacity-and-price-oil/397050001/

“With the Saudi Arabian-American strategy of removing ISIS and terror roots in Middle East societies and governments, the global oil and gas service companies have new projects to expand oil capacity of Saudi Arabia. This moves Saudi Aramco into overcapacity production range and a Second Downturn in early 2019 as forecast in this column six months ago.

Saudi oil production capacity should increase to 13 million barrels per day with Haliburton and others working on projects to increase reserves. This is prepared to flow into export markets to deprive Occidental of its short- term export of domestic oil which the production cut-back under the 1,800,000 barrels per day OPEC and Russian “deal” provided as a temporary marketing opportunity.  The price of de-terrorism in the Middle East is more Saudi Arabian oil and lower world prices.  Saudi Arabian demand forecasts are no more than 1 percent per annum growth:  its new capacity addition could reach 4 percent per annum in the next five years following the service company projects signed weeks ago.

OPEC production and imports to the U.S are up as this column is prepared for publication. The Commodity Market, which determines the price of world oil, would have a trading range breakout if Iranian gunboats break the isolation of Qatar and engage the U.S. Persian Gulf naval capability. However, such incidents would move traders for hours only.

Natural gas prices should continue to move upward as risk hedging begins to focus on buying gas and selling crude.  This is a contract which oil price risk is hedged
A laying of the risk of crude oil price declines with a simultaneous buying of natural gas.

Natural gas storage favors San Juan natural gas producers in the winter months ahead. This stimulates a regional Texas offset with new Eagle Ford dry gas promotion.
Lithium prices have sharply declined mainly because of South Korean mining production and investments. This explains the stock market and Tesla Motors. Tesla may not need its mining investment in Nevada to lower the cost of the battery pack.
This shift to downstream concentration which will re-start statewide competition for expanded facilities to relieve its Fremont, California plant. New Mexico economic development competed with three states to capture the giga-factory in Nevada. A second chance for Santa Fe to win in a second round? “

Editorial: Governor’s energy plan is excellent future blueprint


New Mexico has a wealth of energy resources. And now it has a comprehensive plan to help guide development of those riches to grow the state’s economy.

Last week at the 2015 Southeastern New Mexico Mayor’s Energy Summit in Carlsbad, Gov. Susana Martinez laid out a broad “all of the above” energy policy. “There is no reason we shouldn’t be an energy leader,” she later told attendees at the eighth annual Domenici Public Policy Conference in Las Cruces.

Her plan embraces a wide range of energy sources, ranging from oil and gas to solar, wind and up-and-coming technologies, such as “small modular reactors,” which must still be approved by the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

While the oil and gas industry has been – and still is – the backbone of the state’s energy economy (accounting for more than a billion dollars in revenues to the state each year), it’s clear there is plenty of opportunity for the growing renewable energy sector given New Mexico’s abundant sunshine, miles of windswept open spaces and nuclear experience and expertise.

One of the keys is development of more infrastructure – electricity transmission lines to move power generated by wind and solar, and new refineries and improved roads, rail and pipelines to transport resources in and out of the energy-producing areas in the southeastern and northwestern parts of the state.

It also proposes deployment of new battery storage technologies and exporting coal as utilities start using less of that resource as a result of agreements with the federal government to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality.

Gov. Martinez of New Mexico unveils ‘all-of-the-above’ energy plan; first plan in 25 years “There is no reason we should not be an energy leader”


For the complete article use this link–> http://www.abqjournal.com/643822/biz/biz-most-recent/gov-martinez-to-unveil-new-state-energy-plan.html
By Kevin Robinson-Avila / Journal Staff Writer
Published: Monday, September 14th, 2015 at 8:50am
Updated: Monday, September 14th, 2015 at 10:32pm
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ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Gov. Susana Martinez on Monday unveiled a broad “all-of-the-above” plan to develop New Mexico’s energy resources, the first such comprehensive policy outline for the state in 25 years.

The governor recommended a broad array of strategies and policies that includes traditional fossil fuels, such as oil, natural gas and coal, and renewables, such as wind and solar, and new technologies, such as “small modular reactors,” to harness nuclear energy.

It’s all about building and diversifying New Mexico’s economy to provide well-paying jobs, Martinez said.

“New Mexico is one of the most energy-rich and energy-diverse states in the nation, and we have an excellent opportunity to utilize this position to grow our economy and create more jobs,” Martinez said in a prepared statement.

“Improving our energy infrastructure, responsibly developing and producing energy of all types and better preparing our workforce for the needs of our energy sector are all critical components not only of a strong economic future, but of helping lead America to energy independence.”

Responses to the plan are likely to be varied, given the broad range of policies it promotes.

New Mexico Governor Martinez unveils new state energy plan; first plan in 25 years


Amarillo to host PPROA event ; Leading energy expert Dr. Daniel Fine to deliver breaking news keynote


Amarillo to host PPROA event

Posted: September 4, 2015 – 11:19pm  |  Updated: September 7, 2015 – 10:25pm
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Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

Kel Seliger: Texas state senator, R-Amarillo.

A New Mexico energy policy expert will headline the 86th annual gathering of Panhandle Producers and Royalty Owners Association.

The event will take place Sept. 22 to 24, with sessions at Amarillo Civic Center Complex and events at the Cactus Gun Club and Ross Rogers Municipal Golf Course.

PPROA serves as an advocate for oil and gas producers, mineral royalty owners and industry support companies in the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas.

Dr. Daniel I. Fine, associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy, a research arm of New Mexico Tech, and Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush will be featured speakers on Sept. 23.

Fine is a senior policy analyst in the New Mexico State House and his resume includes stints as a policy advisor on nonconventional oil and gas in the administration of President George W. Bush and as a research associate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Mining and Minerals Resources Institute.

“I’m going to make a special announcement about a policy recommendation that could change the supply and demand for oil dramatically to benefit southwest U.S. producers,” Fine said Friday.

“Let me just say that (much), and I’m reserving that for Amarillo.”

Fine said the information he will release is set against the backdrop of the “open price war against southwest and U.S. shale (oil) production. I’m going to break it down in terms of the history of the price war, the objectives of Saudi Arabia, and the current condition of world oversupply.”

The talk also will cover policy issues involved in the current situation, as well as contain his analysis of the consequences of the proposed nonnuclear proliferation treaty between the United States and Iran and “the re-entry of Iran in the world oil market and its impact on price and U.S. production,” Fine said.

The schedule for Sept. 23 will include a keynote luncheon speech by Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush.

A forum is also planned featuring state Sen. Kel Seliger (R-
Amarillo), state Reps. Four Price (R-Amarillo) and Ken King (R-Canadian), Texas Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton, Texas Alliance of Energy Producers Chief Counsel Gloria Leal, and Texas energy advocate Luke Legate, a PPROA news release said.

The convention will open on Sept. 22, with sessions about the battle for minerals and surface rights in the Texas Supreme Court by Houston lawyer John B. Thomas and a “WOTUS or Bogus” presentation from speaker John Tintera about the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Waters of the United States rules.

Tinterra is former executive director of the Railroad Commission of Texas, a regulatory expert and licensed geologist.

The Sept. 24 activity is a golf tournament at the Ross Rogers course.

PPROA has about 640 members and its conventions regularly draw 200 to 300 participants, Executive Vice President Judy Stark said.

For a convention schedule and registration details, visit www
.pproa.org or call the association office at 806-352-5637.

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